NASCAR Odds: Public Pounding Non-Playoff Drivers Again in YellaWood 500

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Erik Jones competes in the NASCAR Southern 500 auto race Sunday, Sept. 4, 2022, in Darlington, S.C. Jones held on to the victory after taking the lead from Kyle Busch, who blew a motor with 30 laps remaining in the race. (AP Photo/Sean Rayford)
(AP Photo/Sean Rayford)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Sep 29, 2022, 10:41 AM

Denny Hamlin won the first stage of the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 en route to a win in the first playoff race of the season, which earned him a spot in the Round of 12. 

The next race (Federated Auto Parts 400) was also won by a playoff driver (Martin Truex Jr.), as was the next one (Kyle Larson, Bass Pro Shops Night Race), and the next one (Denny Hamlin, South Point 400).

Four races, and four wins for playoff drivers to open the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

One year later: Four races, and four wins for non-playoff drivers to open the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

Non-playoff drivers have been crashing the playoff party for years. But this is the first time non-playoff drivers have won the first four playoff races – and the first time non-playoff drivers have won four straight playoff races. 

For the YellaWood 500 this weekend, four drivers are tied as co-favorites in race-winner NASCAR odds at BetMGM. All four are alive in the Round of 12:

  • Chase Elliott +1200
  • Joey Logano +1200
  • Ross Chastain +1200
  • Ryan Blaney +1200

None of those four drivers is among the public’s favorite, however. Collectively, as of Thursday, the co-favorites have 20.3% of the handle. That’s less than the combined handle of the two most popular drivers, both non-playoff drivers; Erik Jones (+2500) and Brad Keselowski (+1600) have 29.1% of the total race-winner handle as the public pounds non-playoff drivers for the second straight week.

And half of the top 10 most popular drivers by ticket count are also non-playoff drivers, including Jones, who leads all drivers in ticket share with 6.3%.

This week’s featured matchups at BetMGM are also loaded with non-playoff drivers as they seek a fifth straight win:

Tyler Reddick (-125) vs. Austin Dillon (-105)

Tyler Reddick struggled in the next race after his first two career Cup Series wins, finishing 29th in the Quaker State 400 and the FireKeepers Casino 400. 

If he finishes 29th this weekend after a win in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500, it’d be a huge improvement over his last two starts at Talladega Superspeedway; he finished 39th in the Geico 500 in April and 39th in the 2021 YellaWood 500.

Meanwhile, Reddick’s featured matchup opponent Austin Dillon hasn’t finished worse than 12th in his last four starts at Talladega. But while Dillon is a more popular pick in race-winner betting – 3% of tickets and 4% of the handle to Reddick’s 1.5% and 1.2% – he has just 33% of the handle in featured matchup betting.

Denny Hamlin (-115) vs. William Byron (-115)

The highest-ranked driver in this week’s matchups, Denny Hamlin, is the fourth-most-experienced driver at Talladega in this weekend’s field. Only Kevin Harvick (43), Truex (35), and Kyle Busch (34) have more career Cup Series starts at the track among active drivers than Hamlin (33).

But only one active driver (Logano) has led more laps at Talladega than Hamlin. The 41-year-old has led at least six laps in each of his last five starts at the track – and at least one lap in 26 of his 34 career starts. 

Hamlin is dominating featured matchup betting against William Byron, who has just two top-10 finishes in 10 starts at Talladega. Hamlin has 97% of the handle on 96% of the tickets.

Bubba Wallace (-130) vs. Chris Buescher (+100)

Bubba Wallace crashed the party at last year’s race, earning his first career Cup Series win in his 143rd career start and ending the four-race winning streak for playoff drivers to open the 2021 playoffs.

At +1600 in race-winner odds, Wallace isn’t far back from the favorites. He’s led at least five laps in each of his last four starts at Talladega, though he actually led fewer laps (five) en route to last year’s win than Chris Buescher (seven), who tied a career-best finish (sixth) in the 2021 YellaWood 500.

Neither Wallace nor Buescher is in the top 10 for race-winner ticket share, though Wallace does rank 10th in handle share at 3.3%. Bettors are picking Buescher in this matchup; he has 86% of the handle on 67% of the tickets.

Christopher Bell (-120) vs. Alex Bowman (-110)

Christopher Bell’s top-five streak ended at three races with a crash and 34th-place finish in Fort Worth. It was just the fourth time he finished outside the top 20 in his last 20 starts, a run that followed a 22nd-place finish at Talladega in April.

Bell has finished higher than his starting position only once in his last four starts at the track – a fifth-place finish after starting 12th in the 2021 YellaWood 500. Similarly, this week’s opponent Alex Bowman has finished higher than his starting position only three times in his last eight starts at Talladega.

Bowman has 76% of the featured matchup handle on a 50-50 ticket split.

You can view updated YellaWood 500 odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.