Bucks vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 29, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Nuggets are -3.5 favorites vs. the Bucks
  • Total (Over/Under): 238.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | BSWI

The Milwaukee Bucks visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Bucks vs Nuggets Over/Under is 238.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 18-27 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 19-26 against the spread.


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Bucks vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Milwaukee Bucks+3.5 -105O 238.5 -110+140
Denver Nuggets -3.5 -115U 238.5 -110-165

Nuggets vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Monday‘s game with 61.8% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Bucks and Nuggets, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Nuggets vs Bucks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 55.8% confidence.


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  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+17.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 37 away games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 46 of their last 77 games (+11.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 54 of their last 78 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+9.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 65 of their last 99 games (+26.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 68 games (+19.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 80 games (+19.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 47 of their last 75 games (+17.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games at home (+13.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 18-27 (-11.75 Units / -23.13% ROI).

  • 32-14 against the Moneyline (+2.1 Units / 1.26% ROI)
  • 28-18 against the Over for game total points (+8.2 Units / 16.19% ROI)
  • 18-28 against the Under for game total points (-12.75 Units / -25.22% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 19-26 (-9.75 Units / -18.73% ROI).

  • 32-15 against the Moneyline (+7.95 Units / 5.47% ROI)
  • 17-29 against the Over for game total points (-14.9 Units / -28.85% ROI)
  • 29-17 against the Under for game total points (+10.3 Units / 19.92% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 99 games (-38.10 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 80 games (-27.00 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 91 games (-25.10 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 20 of their last 60 games (-21.80 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 96 games (-21.50 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 72 games (-24.55 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 53 games (-21.55 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 77 games (-19.10 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the Spread in 22 of their last 60 games (-18.75 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 32 of their last 77 games (-18.00 Units / -21% ROI)

Jump to:

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Bucks were 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Bucks were 25-7 (.781) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Bucks were 51-21 (.708) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .491

The Bucks were 29-8 (.784) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Nuggets are 21-5 (.808) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .567

The Nuggets are 13-3 (.812) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 22-4 (.846) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .595

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. BucksMonday‘s Game, Jan. 29

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Jae Crowder (Milwaukee Bucks): Groin, Out
  • Pat Connaughton (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Out

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 1.44 points per shot (2,890 points/2,007 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32

The Bucks have averaged 62.8 points per game (2,890 points/46 games) in the second half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 57.3

The Bucks have 26.6 free throw attempts per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.0

The Bucks averaged 1.7 second chance points per game (102 points/61 games) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.7

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,822/5,489) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,976/5,816) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 38.9 defensive rebounds per game (4,980 rebounds/128 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.21 points per shot (4,679 points/3,854 shots) on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.31

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.18 points per shot (4,607 points/3,889 shots) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (320 steals/47 games) this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 6.0 second chance points per game (282 points/47 games) in the second half this season — tied for best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 7.1

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (449/1,382) at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (933/2,711) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.