Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction: Best Bets & Odds for Game 1

The opening round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs will begin with a matchup between the No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks (49-34) and No. 4 Indiana Pacers (50-32). Game 1 is set for Noon ET on Saturday in Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

This is a rematch of last year’s first-round matchup, when the Pacers earned a 4-2 series win over a Bucks team missing Giannis Antetokounmpo. Although Antetokounmpo is healthy this year, Milwaukee likely won’t have point guard Damian Lillard because of a blood clot in his right calf.

Indiana is -200 to win the series and a 4.5-point favorite in the opener.

Here’s a look at the latest NBA betting lines for the Bucks vs. Pacers and my prediction ahead of Saturday’s Game 1:

Bucks vs. Pacers Odds: Game 1

• Bucks spread: +4.5 (-105)
• Pacers spread: -4.5 (-115)
• Total: 225.5

Bucks vs. Pacers Round 1 Odds

According to the latest NBA odds, the Pacers are -200 to win the series for an implied probability of 66.67%. The Bucks are +165, giving them a 37.74% chance of pulling off an upset.

Bucks series price: +165
Pacers series price: -200

Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction: Game 1 & Series Best Bet

Based on the updated NBA betting market, my Bucks vs. Pacers prediction is for Indiana to win Game 1 and the series (+100). I also don’t mind the +450 price tag on the Pacers to win in six games.

Lillard has been sidelined since March 18, so even if he does return, it won’t be until later in the series. The Pacers must set the tone early in the series when they have home-court advantage.

I don’t think that will be a problem because Indiana has been the better team for a few months now. Since Jan. 1, the Pacers have had the sixth-best net rating in the NBA, ranking seventh in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating.

Milwaukee has ranked 12th in net rating since losing Lillard, which includes this team ending the regular season on an eight-game win streak. However, only two of those wins came against teams that were trying.

It’s easy to default to backing the best player in a playoff series, but the Pacers have more top-end talent after Giannis. Tyrese Haliburton has looked more like himself after an early-season slump, a promising sign for a team that made last year’s Eastern Conference finals.

There are several ways to back the Pacers in Round 1, including their series spread of -1.5 (+115) or betting on them to win in six games (+450). However, my favorite way to support the better team is the +100 value on Indiana to win Game 1 and the series.

The Pacers haven’t had home-court advantage in a playoff series since 2014. I expect the crowd to be rocking on Saturday, setting the tone for a series victory.

Series prediction: Pacers to win Game 1 and the series (+100)

Bucks vs. Pacers Series History

Bucks Betting Insights & Trends

Pacers Betting Insights & Trends

When Was the Last Time the Bucks Won a Playoff Series?

The Bucks haven’t won a playoff series since 2022, losing in the first round in back-to-back years. They have only won one postseason round since their 2021 championship.

When Was the Last Time the Pacers Won a Playoff Series?

The Pacers reached the Eastern Conference finals in 2024, earning wins over the Bucks and New York Knicks before being swept by the Boston Celtics. Before that, Indiana hadn’t won a postseason series since 2014.