Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 23

  • The Cavaliers are -12.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 212.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | FDOH | SUN

The Miami Heat visit Rocket Arena to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.

The Cavaliers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Cavaliers Over/Under is 212.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 41-43 against the spread, while the Cavaliers are 49-33 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+12.5 -115O 212.5 -115+500
Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 -105U 212.5 -105-700

Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Cavaliers will win Wednesday‘s game with 79.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Cavaliers.

Cavaliers vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 69.0% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 32 of their last 51 games (+22.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games (+20.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 24 of their last 29 away games (+18.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 34 of their last 51 games (+16.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 79 games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 87 games (+26.65 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 42 games at home (+22.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 85 games (+19.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 55 of their last 87 games (+14.94 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have covered the Spread in 51 of their last 85 games (+14.70 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 41-43 (-6.3 Units / -6.73% ROI).

  • 39-46 against the Moneyline (-15.45 Units / -9.91% ROI)
  • 46-39 against the Over for game total points (+3.1 Units / 3.32% ROI)
  • 39-46 against the Under for game total points (-11.6 Units / -12.41% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Cavaliers have gone 49-33 (+12.7 Units / 13.91% ROI).

  • 65-18 against the Moneyline (+23.15 Units / 6.04% ROI)
  • 52-31 against the Over for game total points (+17.9 Units / 19.61% ROI)
  • 31-52 against the Under for game total points (-26.2 Units / -28.7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 78 games (-35.33 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 93 games (-28.80 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only covered the 3Q Spread in 29 of their last 79 games (-27.30 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 91 games (-25.80 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 93 games (-22.45 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 88 games (-27.45 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 87 games (-24.08 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 77 games (-21.43 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 64 games (-20.37 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 16 of their last 47 games (-19.00 Units / -35% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers

The Heat are 6-21 (.222) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — 8th-worst in the NBA. The Cavaliers have made 15.9 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd-highest in the NBA.

The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659

The Heat are 6-21 (.222) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .354

The Heat were 18-7 (.720) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Cleveland Cavaliers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Cavaliers are 46-7 (.868) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .646

The Cavaliers are undefeated (14-0) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .455

The Cavaliers are 13-1 (.929) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Cavaliers are 33-7 (.825) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (943 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Heat averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers have an eFG% of 58% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Cavaliers have averaged 13.2 turnovers per game (1,082 turnovers/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Cavaliers have an eFG% of 57% on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Cavaliers have a TS% of 54% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (314 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (594 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (292 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Cleveland Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,985 rebounds/82 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Cavaliers averaged 4.6 blocks per game (380 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Cavaliers have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (730 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Cavaliers have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (5,896 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2


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