Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 5

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | FDOH | SUN

The Miami Heat visit Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Cleveland, OH, OH, USA.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Heat vs Cavaliers Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 27-32 against the spread, while the Cavaliers are 40-20 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat O
Cleveland Cavaliers U

Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Cavaliers will win Wednesday‘s game with 79.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Cavaliers.

Cavaliers vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Cavaliers will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 70.0% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 47 away games (+21.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 away games (+13.65 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 29 of their last 46 away games (+12.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 18 away games (+11.55 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 65 games (+33.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 93 games (+25.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 33 of their last 40 games at home (+23.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have covered the Spread in 42 of their last 63 games (+20.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 63 games (+16.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 27-32 (-8.2 Units / -12.41% ROI).

  • 29-31 against the Moneyline (-7.1 Units / -6.96% ROI)
  • 33-27 against the Over for game total points (+3.3 Units / 5% ROI)
  • 27-33 against the Under for game total points (-9.3 Units / -14.09% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Cavaliers have gone 40-20 (+18 Units / 26.83% ROI).

  • 51-10 against the Moneyline (+29.6 Units / 10.87% ROI)
  • 41-20 against the Over for game total points (+19 Units / 28.32% ROI)
  • 20-41 against the Under for game total points (-25.1 Units / -37.41% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 93 games (-35.10 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only covered the 3Q Spread in 36 of their last 95 games (-30.55 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 95 games (-28.97 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 93 games (-27.73 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 95 games (-27.00 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 52 games (-18.78 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 81 games (-17.70 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 38 away games (-16.10 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 56 games (-15.30 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 38 away games (-14.95 Units / -34% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers

The Heat are 5-14 (.263) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .442

The Heat were 16-1 (.941) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .822

The Heat are 6-18 (.250) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .386

The Heat are undefeated (7-0) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .742

Cleveland Cavaliers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Cavaliers are undefeated (12-0) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .552

The Cavaliers are 39-3 (.929) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Cavaliers are 46-9 (.836) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .507

The Cavaliers are 60-12 (.833) when making 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .645

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (823 points/142 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Heat have averaged 5.5 second chance points per game (329 points/60 games) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Heat have averaged 11.6 second chance points per game (1,650 points/142 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Heat averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers are shooting 40% from three (974/2,467) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Cavaliers have an eFG% of 59% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Cavaliers have averaged 123.1 points per game (7,384 points/60 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.5

The Cavaliers have a TS% of 56% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (234 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (228 blocks/60 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (274 blocks/74 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

Cleveland Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,181 rebounds/60 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4

The Cavaliers have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (646 blocks/142 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Cavaliers have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (266 blocks/60 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Cavaliers have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (5,092 rebounds/142 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3


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