- The Kings are -3.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
- Watch the game on NBAt | SUN | NSCA
The Miami Heat visit Golden 1 Center to take on the Sacramento Kings on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Sacramento, CA.
The Kings are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).
The Heat vs Kings Over/Under is 219.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 15-18 against the spread, while the Kings are 13-21 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Kings Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | +4.5 -115 | O 219.5 -115 | +150 |
| Sacramento Kings | -4.5 -105 | U 219.5 -105 | -185 |
Kings vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Kings will win Monday‘s game with 69.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Kings.
Kings vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Kings will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 86 games (+19.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 away games (+14.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 23 of their last 33 away games (+13.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 away games (+10.58 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.11 Units / 23% ROI)
Kings Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Sacramento Kings have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 84 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Sacramento Kings have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+12.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Sacramento Kings have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Sacramento Kings have covered the 2Q Spread in 45 of their last 77 games (+9.22 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Sacramento Kings have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.70 Units / 29% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 15-18 (-4.8 Units / -13.22% ROI).
- 17-16 against the Moneyline (-1.5 Units / -2.42% ROI)
- 19-14 against the Over for game total points (+3.6 Units / 9.92% ROI)
- 14-19 against the Under for game total points (-6.9 Units / -19.01% ROI)
Sacramento Kings Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Kings have gone 13-21 (-10.1 Units / -25.51% ROI).
- 17-19 against the Moneyline (-17.95 Units / -21.74% ROI)
- 17-18 against the Over for game total points (-2.8 Units / -7.08% ROI)
- 18-17 against the Under for game total points (-0.75 Units / -1.89% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Kings:
- The Sacramento Kings have only hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 83 games (-33.45 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Sacramento Kings have only covered the 4Q Spread in 32 of their last 83 games (-27.18 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 86 games (-25.62 Units / -26% ROI)
- The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 85 games (-24.66 Units / -25% ROI)
- The Sacramento Kings have only hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 58 games (-18.60 Units / -29% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 86 games (-31.53 Units / -32% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 83 games (-25.50 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 83 games (-19.55 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 85 games (-19.25 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 85 games (-17.55 Units / -18% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Sacramento Kings
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Sacramento Kings Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Sacramento Kings Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Sacramento Kings
The Heat are 5-10 (.333) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .393
The Heat are undefeated (10-0) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .812
The Heat were 17-2 (.895) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789
The Heat are 17-9 (.654) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550
Sacramento Kings: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Kings are undefeated (12-0) when forcing their opponent to shoot 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .899
The Kings are 5-7 (.417) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542
The Kings are 52-35 (.598) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .509
The Kings are 33-8 (.805) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Heat have averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (1,317 points/115 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8
The Heat have averaged 5.4 second chance points per game (620 points/115 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6
The Heat have averaged 11.0 second chance points per game (625 points/57 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7
Sacramento Kings Offensive Stats & Trends
The Kings have averaged 13.7 fast break points per game (492 points/36 games) this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.5
The Kings averaged 116.6 points per game (9,558 points/82 games) last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3
The Kings averaged 14.6 second chance points per game (1,197 points/82 games) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8
The Kings have averaged 13.5 turnovers per game (485 turnovers/36 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (120 blocks/33 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
Sacramento Kings Defensive Stats & Trends
The Kings have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (739 blocks/189 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Kings allowed 10.9 second chance points per game (891 points/82 games) last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.8
The Kings have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (366 blocks/94 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Kings have allowed 5.4 second chance points per game (640 points/118 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 7.0
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