- The Magic are -3.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 208.5 points
- Watch the game on FDFL | SUN
The Miami Heat visit Kia Center to take on the Orlando Magic on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Orlando, FL.
The Magic are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Heat vs Magic Over/Under is 205.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 11-14 against the spread, while the Magic are 16-11 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Magic Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | +2.5 -110 | O 205.5 -110 | +120 |
| Orlando Magic | -2.5 -110 | U 205.5 -110 | -145 |
Magic vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Magic will win Saturday‘s game with 70.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Magic.
Magic vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 84 games (+17.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 34 of their last 52 games (+15.62 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 away games (+12.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.71 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 away games (+10.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Magic Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Orlando Magic have covered the 4Q Spread in 56 of their last 86 games (+22.68 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Orlando Magic have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 41 games at home (+20.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Orlando Magic have covered the Spread in 26 of their last 35 games at home (+17.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Orlando Magic have hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 34 games at home (+14.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Orlando Magic have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.51 Units / 42% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 11-14 (-4.4 Units / -16% ROI).
- 13-12 against the Moneyline (-0.5 Units / -1.1% ROI)
- 14-11 against the Over for game total points (+1.9 Units / 6.91% ROI)
- 11-14 against the Under for game total points (-4.4 Units / -16% ROI)
Orlando Magic Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Magic have gone 16-11 (+3.85 Units / 12.07% ROI).
- 17-12 against the Moneyline (+3.75 Units / 6.2% ROI)
- 13-16 against the Over for game total points (-4.6 Units / -14.42% ROI)
- 16-13 against the Under for game total points (+1.7 Units / 5.33% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Magic:
- The Orlando Magic have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 89 games (-26.75 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Orlando Magic have only covered the 1H Spread in 36 of their last 90 games (-26.62 Units / -25% ROI)
- The Orlando Magic have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 89 games (-24.85 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Orlando Magic have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 91 games (-22.13 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Orlando Magic have only covered the 1Q Spread in 38 of their last 90 games (-20.82 Units / -20% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 84 games (-29.28 Units / -31% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 75 games (-24.90 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 34 of their last 85 games (-22.35 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 75 games (-20.80 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 83 games (-20.75 Units / -22% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Orlando Magic
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Orlando Magic Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Orlando Magic Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Orlando Magic
The Heat are 23-1 (.958) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .820
The Heat are 18-4 (.818) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .699
The Heat are 9-3 (.750) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .610
The Heat were 18-7 (.720) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554
Orlando Magic: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Magic are 11-2 (.846) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .658
The Magic are 13-8 (.619) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .553
The Magic are 16-1 (.941) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .710
The Magic are 5-17 (.227) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .349
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (943 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8
The Heat averaged 12.7 turnovers per game (1,038 turnovers/82 games) last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
The Heat have made 14.7 three-pointers per game this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.5
Orlando Magic Offensive Stats & Trends
The Magic are shooting 31% from three (333/1,079) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Magic are shooting 34% from three (1,236/3,647) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Magic have 24.2 free throw attempts per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 21.8
The Magic have a 28% free throw rate (2,690 free throw attempts/9,434 field goal attempts) since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (184 blocks/53 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
Orlando Magic Defensive Stats & Trends
The Magic have allowed 10.3 second chance points per game (300 points/29 games) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.7
The Magic have allowed 3.4 second chance points per game (100 points/29 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 6.9
The Magic averaged 34.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,817 rebounds/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Magic have allowed 48.3 points per game (1,401 points/29 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 56.1
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