Heat vs Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Dec. 16

  • The Heat are -4.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | FDDT

The Miami Heat visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Detroit, MI.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Heat vs Pistons Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 11-12 against the spread, while the Pistons are 13-12 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Pistons Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat O
Detroit Pistons U

Pistons vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Monday‘s game with 76.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Pistons.

Pistons vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pistons will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 52.1% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 away games (+14.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 20 of their last 28 away games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 away games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 away games (+9.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 games at home (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+9.92 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 1Q Spread in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 11-12 (-2.2 Units / -8.7% ROI).

  • 12-10 against the Moneyline (+1.3 Units / 3.47% ROI)
  • 13-9 against the Over for game total points (+3.1 Units / 12.81% ROI)
  • 9-13 against the Under for game total points (-5.3 Units / -21.9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 13-12 (-0.2 Units / -0.7% ROI).

  • 10-15 against the Moneyline (-1.8 Units / -6.29% ROI)
  • 12-12 against the Over for game total points (-1.2 Units / -4.36% ROI)
  • 12-12 against the Under for game total points (-1.2 Units / -4.36% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 38 games at home (-15.75 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 38 games at home (-13.00 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 36 games at home (-12.67 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 19 games at home (-11.05 Units / -51% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 26 games at home (-10.85 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 41 away games (-17.85 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 41 away games (-17.00 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 40 away games (-11.85 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 41 away games (-11.50 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 37 away games (-11.30 Units / -27% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Heat were 28-14 (.667) when they win the turnover margin last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Heat are 22-11 (.667) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Heat were 19-10 (.655) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

The Heat were 16-1 (.941) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .822

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pistons were 4-21 (.160) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Pistons are 19-102 (.157) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .453

The Pistons are 7-84 (.077) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .365

The Pistons were 4-31 (.114) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .431

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (9,892 points/186 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4

The Heat are shooting 83% from the free throw line (1,747/2,102) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 79%

The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons had an eFG% of 53% last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Pistons made 11.0 three-pointers per game last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Pistons are shooting 32% from three (128/397) at home this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Pistons had a TS% of 50% last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (181 blocks/53 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.3

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 6.3 steals per game (165 steals/26 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Pistons averaged 6.5 steals per game (531 steals/82 games) last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Pistons have averaged 6.4 steals per game (696 steals/108 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.7

The Pistons have averaged 36.1 defensive rebounds per game (938 rebounds/26 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.