- The Rockets are -8.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 216.5 points
- Watch the game on SUN | SCHN
The Miami Heat visit Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Houston, TX.
The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().
The Heat vs Rockets Over/Under is total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 13-16 against the spread, while the Rockets are 19-12 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Rockets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | O | ||
| Houston Rockets | U |
Rockets vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Rockets will win Sunday‘s game with 79.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Rockets.
Rockets vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 55.1% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 55 of their last 87 games (+20.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 36 of their last 56 games (+15.22 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 36 away games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.41 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Rockets Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 57 games (+24.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Rockets have covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 47 games (+16.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Rockets have covered the Spread in 36 of their last 55 games (+15.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Rockets have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 54 games (+11.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Rockets have covered the 1H Spread in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 13-16 (-4.6 Units / -14.42% ROI).
- 15-14 against the Moneyline (-0.5 Units / -0.95% ROI)
- 16-13 against the Over for game total points (+1.7 Units / 5.33% ROI)
- 13-16 against the Under for game total points (-4.6 Units / -14.42% ROI)
Houston Rockets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 19-12 (+5.8 Units / 17.01% ROI).
- 21-10 against the Moneyline (+2.15 Units / 3.05% ROI)
- 16-14 against the Over for game total points (+0.6 Units / 1.75% ROI)
- 14-16 against the Under for game total points (-3.5 Units / -10.29% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Rockets:
- The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 29 of their last 70 games (-18.42 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Houston Rockets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 40 games at home (-16.70 Units / -36% ROI)
- The Houston Rockets have only hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 84 games (-16.55 Units / -18% ROI)
- The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 84 games (-15.85 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Houston Rockets have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 36 games at home (-15.70 Units / -38% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 87 games (-32.73 Units / -33% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 30 of their last 79 games (-25.25 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 87 games (-22.10 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 79 games (-20.85 Units / -18% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 37 of their last 87 games (-18.15 Units / -18% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Houston Rockets
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Houston Rockets Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Houston Rockets Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets
The Heat were 17-2 (.895) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789
The Heat are 16-9 (.640) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549
The Heat are 25-1 (.962) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .820
The Heat are 7-5 (.583) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .449
Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Rockets are winless (0-16) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .160
The Rockets are 1-4 (.200) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — T-7th-worst in the NBA. The Heat have made 14.5 three-pointers per game this season — T-8th-highest in the NBA.
The Rockets are 3-23 (.115) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .350
The Rockets were 2-19 (.095) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .353
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
The Heat are shooting 38% from three (421/1,121) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Heat averaged 110.1 points per game (9,032 points/82 games) last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3
Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Rockets are shooting 23% from three (35/149) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%
The Rockets have an eFG% of 45% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
The Rockets have averaged 1.10 points per shot (437 points/396 shots) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32
The Rockets are shooting 30% from three (169/560) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (383 blocks/111 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Rockets have averaged 5.7 blocks per game (176 blocks/31 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2
The Rockets have allowed a TS% of 48% this season — 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%
The Rockets averaged 7.8 steals per game (639 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Rockets have averaged 8.0 steals per game (902 steals/113 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.7
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