Heat vs Trail Blazers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 27, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Heat are -6.5 favorites vs. the Trail Blazers
  • Total (Over/Under): 212.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | RTNW

The Miami Heat visit Moda Center at the Rose Quarter to take on the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Portland, OR.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Trail Blazers Over/Under is 213.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 29-28 against the spread, while the Trail Blazers are 25-31 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Trail Blazers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-7.5 -105O 213.5 -115-300
Portland Trail Blazers +7.5 -115U 213.5 -105+240

Trail Blazers vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Tuesday‘s game with 76.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Trail Blazers.

Trail Blazers vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Trail Blazers will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 52.6% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 away games (+28.10 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 81 games (+21.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 56 of their last 90 games (+20.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games (+17.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 27 games (+16.40 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games (+14.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 43 games (+10.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 28 games at home (+7.90 Units / 26% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 29-28 (-1.7 Units / -2.71% ROI).

  • 32-25 against the Moneyline (+3.5 Units / 3.83% ROI)
  • 22-35 against the Over for game total points (-16.5 Units / -26.32% ROI)
  • 35-22 against the Under for game total points (+10.8 Units / 17.22% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Trail Blazers have gone 25-31 (-8.95 Units / -14.6% ROI).

  • 15-41 against the Moneyline (-3.9 Units / -6.48% ROI)
  • 26-30 against the Over for game total points (-7 Units / -11.35% ROI)
  • 30-26 against the Under for game total points (+1.45 Units / 2.36% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 27 of their last 73 games (-21.50 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 55 games (-20.95 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 57 games (-20.05 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 36 games at home (-17.80 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 24 of their last 62 games (-17.70 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 89 games (-24.85 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 66 games (-24.30 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-23.25 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 73 games (-22.05 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 68 games (-17.80 Units / -24% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Portland Trail Blazers

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

The Heat are 19-10 (.655) when they win the turnover margin this season — 10th-best in the NBA. The Trail Blazers have averaged 14.9 turnovers per game this season — 3rd-highest in the NBA.

The Heat are 22-7 (.759) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .642

Portland Trail Blazers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Trail Blazers are 8-30 (.211) when allowing 110 or more points this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .358

The Trail Blazers are 9-18 (.333) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .560

The Trail Blazers were 22-43 (.338) when allowing 110 or more points last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .355

The Trail Blazers are 6-16 (.273) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

Injury Report: Trail Blazers vs. HeatTuesday‘s Game, Feb. 27

  • Scoot Henderson (Portland Trail Blazers): Groin, Out
  • Rayan Rupert (Portland Trail Blazers): Ankle, Out
  • Moses Brown (Portland Trail Blazers): Wrist, Out
  • Shaedon Sharpe (Portland Trail Blazers): Abdomen, Out
  • Malcolm Brogdon (Portland Trail Blazers): Elbow, Out
  • Robert Williams (Portland Trail Blazers): Knee, Out For Season
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,537/5,644) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Heat are shooting 42% (251/592) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

Portland Trail Blazers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Trail Blazers have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,179 assists/ 775 TOs) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Trail Blazers have a TS% of 49% this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Trail Blazers are shooting 44% (2,049/4,650) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Trail Blazers have averaged 1.22 points per shot (2,748 points/2,254 shots) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

Portland Trail Blazers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Trail Blazers have averaged 32.0 defensive rebounds per game (1,663 rebounds/52 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Trail Blazers have allowed opponents to shoot 27% from three (59/223) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 35%

The Trail Blazers have averaged 32.8 defensive rebounds per game (4,401 rebounds/134 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Trail Blazers allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three (538/1,343) at home last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.