- The Heat are a 7.5-point home underdog against the Celtics.
- The Celtics have won each of their last 18 games following a home loss.
- My Heat vs. Celtics prediction is a SGP centered around the first half.
After a narrow home loss to the Thunder, the Celtics will travel to South Beach to face the Heat.
Boston lost 118-112 to the Thunder on Wednesday as home favorites, ending a five-game winning streak. This season, Boston is 2-0 SU against the Heat.
Miami has lost five games in a row with four of those failures coming on their home court. Despite that horrendous run, Miami still sits ninth in the Eastern Conference.
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Heat vs. Celtics Odds, NBA
Heat vs. Celtics Prediction
Based on Boston’s strong record in the first half off a loss and their defensive strength, my Heat vs. Celtics prediction is a SGP: Celtics 1H Moneyline & Miami Under 106.5 Points (-110).
Under head coach Joe Mazzula, the Celtics have excelled in the first half immediately following a loss.
Since the 2022 season, Boston is 48-12-1 SU in the opening half off a loss, including an impressive 20-4-1 away from home.
Just this season, the Celtics are 15-2-1 SU in the first half off a loss. They’re also 2-0 SU in the opening half against Miami.
From there, I like pairing the Celtics’ first-half moneyline with the Heat under 106.5 points.
Boston kept the Heat under 90 points in each of their two head-to-head meetings this season. Recently, the Heat have struggled to clear this number against inferior defenses.
Miami has stayed under this number in two straight and four of their previous six contests.
It’s simultaneously the second straight contest against a team fifth or better in adjusted defensive rating, per dunksandthrees.com.
On Wednesday, Miami faced a Clippers team second in adjusted defensive rating. Erik Spoelstra’s side managed only 102 points.
This season, Miami has played 12 games against teams fifth or better in adjusted defensive rating. They cleared this number only twice in those 12.
Both successes came against the Magic, who sit fifth in that category. As a result, I like Miami’s offensive struggles continuing against a stout Boston defense.
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