Mavericks vs Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 15

Dallas Mavericks logo on the left and New Orleans Pelicans logo on the right
AP Photos
  • The Mavericks are -2.5 favorites vs. the Pelicans
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5 points
  • Watch the game on KFAA | GCSE

The Dallas Mavericks visit Smoothie King Center to take on the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in New Orleans, LA, USA.

The Pelicans are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Mavericks vs Pelicans Over/Under is 221.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 19-20 against the spread, while the Pelicans are 17-24 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Pelicans Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+1.5 -115O 221.5 -115-105
New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 -105U 221.5 -105-115

Pelicans vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Wednesday‘s game with 65.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Pelicans.

Pelicans vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 52.7% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 32 of their last 44 away games (+19.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 away games (+18.47 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 58 of their last 95 games (+17.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+15.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 55 of their last 95 games (+13.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 4Q Spread in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+8.03 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games at home (+6.95 Units / 29% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 19-20 (-3 Units / -6.82% ROI).

  • 22-18 against the Moneyline (-0.55 Units / -0.56% ROI)
  • 19-21 against the Over for game total points (-4.1 Units / -9.32% ROI)
  • 21-19 against the Under for game total points (+0.1 Units / 0.23% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 17-24 (-9.4 Units / -20.84% ROI).

  • 9-32 against the Moneyline (-23.35 Units / -47.8% ROI)
  • 22-18 against the Over for game total points (+2.2 Units / 4.88% ROI)
  • 18-22 against the Under for game total points (-6.2 Units / -13.75% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 56 games (-33.65 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only covered the 3Q Spread in 33 of their last 87 games (-25.65 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 37 of their last 89 games (-22.77 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 89 games (-20.90 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 89 games (-18.85 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 99 games (-32.52 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 45 of their last 100 games (-28.50 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 99 games (-24.90 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 37 of their last 90 games (-23.05 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 43 of their last 99 games (-19.02 Units / -17% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Mavericks are winless (0-8) when their eFG is 50% or worse this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .188

The Mavericks are 32-26 (.552) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Mavericks are 30-17 (.638) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Mavericks are 13-1 (.929) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .619

New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Pelicans are 1-5 (.167) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Pelicans were 18-3 (.857) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .646

The Pelicans are 19-36 (.345) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .434

The Pelicans were 42-29 (.592) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .487

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.2 turnovers per game (756 turnovers/122 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Mavericks averaged 12.7 turnovers per game (1,045 turnovers/82 games) last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 16.0 fast break points per game (1,312 points/82 games) last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have a TS% of 48% this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Pelicans are shooting 43% (770/1,781) on the road this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Pelicans have averaged 15.2 second chance points per game (623 points/41 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Pelicans shot 38% from three (1,023/2,673) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (4,387 rebounds/122 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Mavericks have blocked 235 shots this season — 4th most among NBA teams

The Mavericks averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,951 rebounds/82 games) last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.8 steals per game (1,285 steals/188 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 9.3 steals per game (568 steals/61 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8

The Pelicans have averaged 9.5 steals per game (390 steals/41 games) this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Pelicans have averaged 34.6 defensive rebounds per game (4,255 rebounds/123 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Pelicans have allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (1,238/3,650) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%


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