- The Heat are -1.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
- Total (Over/Under): 226.5 points
- Watch the game on SUN | ALT | KTVD
The Denver Nuggets visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami, FL, USA.
The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Nuggets vs Heat Over/Under is 226.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 19-20 against the spread, while the Heat are 17-22 against the spread.
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Nuggets vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Denver Nuggets | -1.5 +100 | O 226.5 -110 | -115 |
| Miami Heat | +1.5 -120 | U 226.5 -110 | -105 |
Heat vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Heat.
Heat vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 55.9% confidence.
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Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+8.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.80 Units / 18% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 41 of their last 66 games (+15.62 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 53 of their last 88 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 29 of their last 44 games (+11.81 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 19-20 (-3 Units / -6.82% ROI).
- 24-16 against the Moneyline (-3.4 Units / -3.63% ROI)
- 25-15 against the Over for game total points (+8.5 Units / 19.32% ROI)
- 15-25 against the Under for game total points (-12.5 Units / -28.41% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 17-22 (-7.2 Units / -16.78% ROI).
- 20-19 against the Moneyline (+0.6 Units / 0.86% ROI)
- 21-18 against the Over for game total points (+1.2 Units / 2.8% ROI)
- 18-21 against the Under for game total points (-5.1 Units / -11.89% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 88 games (-27.38 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 37 of their last 88 games (-20.60 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 37 of their last 87 games (-19.45 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 42 games at home (-17.20 Units / -14% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 60 games (-13.85 Units / -20% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 39 of their last 84 games (-38.80 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 55 games (-31.95 Units / -37% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 90 games (-30.85 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1H Spread in 21 of their last 62 games (-26.40 Units / -37% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 42 away games (-25.76 Units / -41% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
- Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Nuggets are 29-7 (.806) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .585
The Nuggets were 25-8 (.758) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543
The Nuggets are 11-4 (.733) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .525
The Nuggets are 15-11 (.577) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .436
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Heat are 2-10 (.167) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 8th-worst in the NBA. The Nuggets have shot 38% from three this season — 3rd-best in the NBA.
The Heat were 18-7 (.720) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554
The Heat are 2-10 (.167) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .293
The Heat were 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (149 assists/ 51 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7
The Nuggets have averaged 19.8 fast break points per game (794 points/40 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.5
The Nuggets have averaged 10.3 fast break points per game (411 points/40 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0
The Nuggets are shooting 51% (912/1,793) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%
The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (9,892 points/186 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4
The Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (943 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 36.2 defensive rebounds per game (4,422 rebounds/122 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Nuggets blocked 457 shots last season — 10th most among NBA teams
The Nuggets averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Nuggets have averaged 5.4 blocks per game (329 blocks/61 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
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