Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 25, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Nuggets are -0.5 favorites vs. the Warriors
  • Total (Over/Under): 230.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | ALT | NSBA

The Denver Nuggets visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in San Francisco, CA.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Nuggets vs Warriors Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 24-31 against the spread, while the Warriors are 30-24 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+2.5 -110O 230.5 -110+120
Golden State Warriors -2.5 -110U 230.5 -110-145

Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Sunday‘s game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Warriors.

Warriors vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 99 games (+25.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 90 games (+20.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 78 games (+20.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+20.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 43 of their last 70 games (+13.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 34 of their last 54 games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 19 of their last 23 games (+14.60 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games (+14.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+13.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 76% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 24-31 (-10.2 Units / -16.19% ROI).

  • 38-19 against the Moneyline (+8.85 Units / 4.62% ROI)
  • 21-35 against the Over for game total points (-17.5 Units / -27.93% ROI)
  • 35-21 against the Under for game total points (+11.9 Units / 18.98% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 30-24 (+3.6 Units / 5.95% ROI).

  • 29-26 against the Moneyline (-2.15 Units / -2.01% ROI)
  • 30-25 against the Over for game total points (+2.5 Units / 4.14% ROI)
  • 25-30 against the Under for game total points (-8.05 Units / -13.29% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 26 of their last 68 games (-19.65 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 50 games (-18.60 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 68 games (-17.05 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 47 games at home (-16.95 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 38 of their last 90 games (-15.95 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 99 games (-36.15 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 90 games (-29.60 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 85 games (-28.60 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 25 of their last 70 games (-21.25 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 96 games (-20.10 Units / -18% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Nuggets are 21-5 (.808) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 32-11 (.744) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Nuggets are 5-1 (.833) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Warriors were 7-11 (.389) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Warriors were 1-16 (.059) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .188

The Warriors were 26-6 (.812) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Warriors are 7-9 (.438) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .562

Injury Report: Warriors vs. NuggetsSunday‘s Game, Feb. 25

  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,954/5,757) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,127/6,157) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors made 16.6 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors averaged 30.5 assists per game (1,250 assists/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Warriors averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 111.0 points per game (5,993 points/54 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 115.5

The Nuggets allowed 52.5 points in the paint per game (4,306 points/82 games) last season — 10th highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 50.5

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors averaged 3.9 blocks per game (323 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Warriors have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (254 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Warriors have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/51 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Warriors have averaged 7.0 steals per game (926 steals/133 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.