Pistons vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Oct. 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 28, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Heat are -8.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
  • Watch the game on FDDT | SUN

The Detroit Pistons visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Pistons vs Heat Over/Under is 219.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pistons are 1-2 against the spread, while the Heat are 1-1 against the spread.


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Pistons vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Detroit Pistons+8.5 -110O 219.5 -110+280
Miami Heat -8.5 -110U 219.5 -110-350

Heat vs Pistons Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Monday‘s game with 79.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pistons and Heat.

Heat vs Pistons Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pistons will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 70.0% confidence.


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  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 4Q Spread in 25 of their last 32 away games (+18.05 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 33 games (+13.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 1Q Spread in 34 of their last 56 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+15.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games (+13.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+12.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 89 games (+10.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA preseason, the Pistons have gone 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • 0-3 against the Moneyline (-3 Units / -100% ROI)
  • 1-2 against the Over for game total points (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI)
  • 2-1 against the Under for game total points (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA preseason, the Heat have gone 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • 1-1 against the Moneyline (-0.3 Units / -8.33% ROI)
  • 1-1 against the Over for game total points (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 1-1 against the Under for game total points (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 61 games (-24.25 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 60 games (-22.25 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 23 of their last 62 games (-19.60 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 63 games (-18.90 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 26 games at home (-17.15 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 82 games (-41.35 Units / -48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 73 games (-21.30 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 41 away games (-18.80 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 33 games (-17.85 Units / -51% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 83 games (-17.40 Units / -18% ROI)

Jump to:

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pistons were 4-44 (.083) when they lose the turnover margin last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Pistons were 4-31 (.114) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .431

The Pistons were 6-30 (.167) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

The Pistons are 10-58 (.147) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .434

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 5th-best in the NBA. The Pistons allowed 119.0 points per game last season — 5th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat were 12-3 (.800) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

The Heat were 17-2 (.895) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 10th-best in the NBA. The Pistons allowed opponents to shoot 49% last season — 7th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat were 28-14 (.667) when they win the turnover margin last season — T-8th-best in the NBA. The Pistons averaged 15.2 turnovers per game (1,248 turnovers/82 games) last season — T-2nd-highest in the NBA.

Injury Report: Heat vs. PistonsMonday‘s Game, Oct. 28

  • Miami Heat – No Injuries Reported
  • Detroit Pistons – No Injuries Reported

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (886 assists/ 615 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,884 assists/ 1,237 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons averaged 108.3 points per game (4,440 points/41 games) on the road last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Pistons had an eFG% of 52% in the first half last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat shot 83% from the free throw line (1,567/1,885) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons averaged 6.5 steals per game (531 steals/82 games) last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Pistons averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,756 rebounds/82 games) last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pistons averaged 3.8 blocks per game (308 blocks/82 games) last season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pistons have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,118 steals/167 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (271 blocks/83 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (537 blocks/166 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.