Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 17

  • The Thunder are -7.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
  • Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
  • Watch the game on FDOK | KFAA

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Dallas, TX, USA.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Thunder vs Mavericks Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 26-12 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 19-21 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder-7.5 -110O 225.5 -110-300
Dallas Mavericks +7.5 -110U 225.5 -110+240

Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Friday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 60.6% confidence.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 86 games (+24.70 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 36 of their last 55 games (+18.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 27 away games (+15.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 away games (+12.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 44 games at home (+19.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 49 games at home (+17.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 51 of their last 82 games (+17.43 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+14.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 55 of their last 96 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 26-12 (+12.8 Units / 28.38% ROI).

  • 34-7 against the Moneyline (+16.75 Units / 9.16% ROI)
  • 20-20 against the Over for game total points (-2 Units / -4.43% ROI)
  • 20-20 against the Under for game total points (-2 Units / -4.43% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 19-21 (-4.1 Units / -9.09% ROI).

  • 22-19 against the Moneyline (-1.65 Units / -1.65% ROI)
  • 20-21 against the Over for game total points (-3.1 Units / -6.87% ROI)
  • 21-20 against the Under for game total points (-1 Units / -2.22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 42 games at home (-33.75 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 100 games (-31.52 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 37 of their last 91 games (-24.20 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 100 games (-23.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 43 games at home (-20.42 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 93 games (-20.43 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 92 games (-19.25 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 85 games (-15.58 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 34 of their last 76 games (-14.50 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 43 of their last 92 games (-12.35 Units / -12% ROI)

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Thunder are 15-3 (.833) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .436

The Thunder are 25-3 (.893) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .525

The Thunder are undefeated (5-0) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .558

The Thunder are 26-8 (.765) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .459

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Mavericks are 36-10 (.783) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have averaged 49.8 rebounds/game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th-lowest in the NBA.

The Mavericks were 34-12 (.739) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Mavericks are 13-1 (.929) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .753

The Mavericks were 28-2 (.933) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have averaged 12.0 turnovers per game (481 turnovers/40 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.7

The Thunder had a TS% of 55% in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder are shooting 83% from the free throw line (637/771) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (1,131 turnovers/188 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Mavericks have 23.5 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 21.7

The Mavericks have averaged 14.8 offensive rebounds per game (2,788 rebounds/188 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.4

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.5 steals per game (1,157 steals/122 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8

The Thunder have averaged 11.6 steals per game (463 steals/40 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Thunder have 463 steals this season — most among NBA teams

The Thunder have allowed a TS% of 47% this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,951 rebounds/82 games) last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Mavericks have averaged 5.8 blocks per game (238 blocks/41 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Mavericks have blocked 238 shots this season — 4th most among NBA teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.