Wizards vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 10

  • The Heat are -11.5 favorites vs. the Wizards
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | MNMT

The Washington Wizards visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Wizards vs Heat Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Wizards are 29-33 against the spread, while the Heat are 32-31 against the spread.


Bet now on Heat vs Wizards and all NBA games with BetMGM


Wizards vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Washington Wizards+11.5 -110O 228.5 -110+475
Miami Heat -11.5 -110U 228.5 -110-650

Heat vs Wizards Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 87.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Wizards and Heat.

Heat vs Wizards Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 53.5% confidence.


Bet now on Heat vs Wizards and all NBA games with BetMGM


  • The Washington Wizards have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games (+14.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have covered the 1Q Spread in 44 of their last 73 games (+13.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 29 away games (+13.20 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have covered the 4Q Spread in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 93 games (+25.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 50 of their last 87 games (+20.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 59 of their last 96 games (+19.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 72 games (+19.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 33 games (+18.15 Units / 51% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Wizards have gone 29-33 (-7.25 Units / -10.47% ROI).

  • 10-53 against the Moneyline (-38.95 Units / -59.69% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Over for game total points (-3.15 Units / -4.54% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Under for game total points (-3.1 Units / -4.48% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 32-31 (-2 Units / -2.89% ROI).

  • 35-28 against the Moneyline (+3.5 Units / 3.27% ROI)
  • 24-39 against the Over for game total points (-18.9 Units / -27.27% ROI)
  • 39-24 against the Under for game total points (+12.6 Units / 18.18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 95 games (-27.30 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 72 games (-26.70 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 79 games (-24.55 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 98 games (-22.10 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 26 games at home (-17.80 Units / -63% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 79 games (-43.15 Units / -47% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 68 games (-26.35 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only covered the 3Q Spread in 22 of their last 68 games (-25.00 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 56 games (-21.65 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 32 games (-16.35 Units / -47% ROI)

Jump to:

Washington Wizards: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Wizards are 2-27 (.069) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Wizards are winless (0-4) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

The Wizards are 4-22 (.154) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .438

The Wizards are 12-53 (.185) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .441

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Wizards

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat were 17-3 (.850) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Heat are 12-7 (.632) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Heat are 6-7 (.462) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

Injury Report: Heat vs. WizardsSunday‘s Game, Mar. 10

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Isaiah Livers (Washington Wizards): Hip, Out
  • Deni Avdija (Washington Wizards): Heel, Out

Washington Wizards Offensive Stats & Trends

The Wizards have averaged 18.9 fast break points per game (510 points/27 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Wizards have averaged 9.3 fast break points per game (492 points/53 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8

The Wizards are shooting 33% from three (290/871) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Wizards have averaged 29.3 points in the paint per game (1,552 points/53 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.9

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (7,092 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.8

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 43.4 points in the paint per game (1,084 points/25 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

Washington Wizards Defensive Stats & Trends

The Wizards have allowed 17.1 second chance points per game (906 points/53 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.9

The Wizards have allowed 19.2 second chance points per game (499 points/26 games) at home this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.8

The Wizards have allowed 10.0 offensive rebounds per game (532 rebounds/53 games) in the second half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.4

The Wizards have averaged 7.8 steals per game (412 steals/53 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


Bet now on Heat vs Wizards and all NBA games with BetMGM


Bet on NBA Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NBA betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

betmgm-nco-jamie-foxx

About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.