Wizards vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 10, 2024, 5:30 PM
  • The Heat are -11.5 favorites vs. the Wizards
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | MNMT

The Washington Wizards visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Wizards vs Heat Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Wizards are 29-33 against the spread, while the Heat are 32-31 against the spread.


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Wizards vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Washington Wizards+11.5 -110O 228.5 -110+475
Miami Heat -11.5 -110U 228.5 -110-650

Heat vs Wizards Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 87.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Wizards and Heat.

Heat vs Wizards Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 53.5% confidence.


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  • The Washington Wizards have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games (+14.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have covered the 1Q Spread in 44 of their last 73 games (+13.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 29 away games (+13.20 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have covered the 4Q Spread in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 93 games (+25.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 50 of their last 87 games (+20.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 59 of their last 96 games (+19.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 72 games (+19.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 33 games (+18.15 Units / 51% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Wizards have gone 29-33 (-7.25 Units / -10.47% ROI).

  • 10-53 against the Moneyline (-38.95 Units / -59.69% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Over for game total points (-3.15 Units / -4.54% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Under for game total points (-3.1 Units / -4.48% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 32-31 (-2 Units / -2.89% ROI).

  • 35-28 against the Moneyline (+3.5 Units / 3.27% ROI)
  • 24-39 against the Over for game total points (-18.9 Units / -27.27% ROI)
  • 39-24 against the Under for game total points (+12.6 Units / 18.18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 95 games (-27.30 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 72 games (-26.70 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 79 games (-24.55 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 98 games (-22.10 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 26 games at home (-17.80 Units / -63% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 79 games (-43.15 Units / -47% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 68 games (-26.35 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only covered the 3Q Spread in 22 of their last 68 games (-25.00 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 56 games (-21.65 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 32 games (-16.35 Units / -47% ROI)

Jump to:

Washington Wizards: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Wizards are 2-27 (.069) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Wizards are winless (0-4) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

The Wizards are 4-22 (.154) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .438

The Wizards are 12-53 (.185) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .441

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Wizards

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat were 17-3 (.850) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Heat are 12-7 (.632) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Heat are 6-7 (.462) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

Injury Report: Heat vs. WizardsSunday‘s Game, Mar. 10

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Isaiah Livers (Washington Wizards): Hip, Out
  • Deni Avdija (Washington Wizards): Heel, Out

Washington Wizards Offensive Stats & Trends

The Wizards have averaged 18.9 fast break points per game (510 points/27 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Wizards have averaged 9.3 fast break points per game (492 points/53 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8

The Wizards are shooting 33% from three (290/871) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Wizards have averaged 29.3 points in the paint per game (1,552 points/53 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.9

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (7,092 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.8

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 43.4 points in the paint per game (1,084 points/25 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

Washington Wizards Defensive Stats & Trends

The Wizards have allowed 17.1 second chance points per game (906 points/53 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.9

The Wizards have allowed 19.2 second chance points per game (499 points/26 games) at home this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.8

The Wizards have allowed 10.0 offensive rebounds per game (532 rebounds/53 games) in the second half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.4

The Wizards have averaged 7.8 steals per game (412 steals/53 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.