Wizards vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 3

  • The Heat are -8.5 favorites vs. the Wizards
  • Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
  • Watch the game on MMT2 | SUN

The Washington Wizards visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami, FL, FL, USA.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).

The Wizards vs Heat Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Wizards are 26-31 against the spread, while the Heat are 26-32 against the spread.


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Wizards vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Washington Wizards+8.5 -115O 218.5 -115+260
Miami Heat -8.5 -105U 218.5 -105-325

Heat vs Wizards Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Monday‘s game with 79.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Wizards and Heat.

Heat vs Wizards Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Wizards will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Washington Wizards have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 44 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 84% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+9.95 Units / 199% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+8.95 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 50 of their last 88 games (+13.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 49 of their last 86 games (+9.77 Units / 10% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Wizards have gone 26-31 (-8.1 Units / -12.48% ROI).

  • 11-48 against the Moneyline (-21.1 Units / -35.76% ROI)
  • 30-29 against the Over for game total points (-1.9 Units / -2.93% ROI)
  • 29-30 against the Under for game total points (-4.05 Units / -6.24% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 26-32 (-9.2 Units / -14.18% ROI).

  • 28-31 against the Moneyline (-8.1 Units / -8.21% ROI)
  • 33-26 against the Over for game total points (+4.4 Units / 6.78% ROI)
  • 26-33 against the Under for game total points (-10.3 Units / -15.87% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 80 games (-18.70 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 51 games (-17.68 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 80 games (-15.30 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 55 games (-14.15 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 38 of their last 85 games (-14.10 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 79 games (-27.45 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only covered the 2Q Spread in 30 of their last 81 games (-22.85 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 58 games (-20.85 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 34 of their last 79 games (-18.20 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Washington Wizards have only covered the 1H Spread in 33 of their last 77 games (-17.45 Units / -20% ROI)

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Washington Wizards: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Wizards were 3-40 (.070) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .431

The Wizards are 1-57 (.017) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .222

The Wizards are 7-71 (.090) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .429

The Wizards are winless (0-15) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .386

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Wizards

The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659

The Heat are 26-6 (.812) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .697

The Heat are 6-18 (.250) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .386

The Heat are 17-20 (.459) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

Washington Wizards Offensive Stats & Trends

The Wizards averaged 19.2 fast break points per game (788 points/41 games) on the road last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

The Wizards averaged 17.6 fast break points per game (1,442 points/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

The Wizards are shooting 32% from three (396/1,236) at home this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Wizards have averaged 1.21 points per shot (6,394 points/5,297 shots) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Heat have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (814 points/141 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Heat have averaged 12.1 fast break points per game (314 points/26 games) at home this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.8

Washington Wizards Defensive Stats & Trends

The Wizards averaged 34.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,790 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Wizards allowed 17.5 second chance points per game (716 points/41 games) at home last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.6

The Wizards have allowed 16.5 second chance points per game (1,205 points/73 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.7

The Wizards allowed 18.5 offensive rebounds per game (760 rebounds/41 games) at home last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (230 blocks/67 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (224 blocks/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (504 blocks/141 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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