- Iowa State will be a road favorite against Iowa on Thursday.
- The Cyclones haven’t won this rivalry on the road since 2014.
No. 3 Iowa State (7-1) will travel to Iowa City to face Iowa (7-2) at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. The in-state rivalry inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena will be broadcast on FS1.
This rivalry showdown has become a staple of the December schedule in the college hoops season. Iowa State has been the better team in recent seasons, but Iowa has defeated its in-state foe in four of the past six meetings.
The Cyclones haven’t defeated the Hawkeyes in Carver-Hawkeye Arena since 2014. Iowa State’s 90-65 victory over Iowa came in Hilton Coliseum.
Here is a look at the latest Iowa State vs. Iowa college basketball odds and my prediction for Thursday’s rivalry matchup:
Iowa State vs. Iowa College Basketball Odds, Dec. 12
- Projected point spread: Iowa State -5
- Projected total: 161
While odds for this matchup aren’t yet available at the BetMGM online sportsbook, KenPom projects an 83-78 victory for the Cyclones. That would make Iowa State a five-point favorite with an over/under of 161.
I’ll update these odds when they become available, but let’s use this projection as a guideline for what to expect when the market is released.
Iowa State vs. Iowa Prediction – Thursday, Dec. 12
Based on KenPom’s projection, my Iowa State vs. Iowa college basketball prediction would be to take the points with the Hawkeyes (+5) at home against the Cyclones. History favors Iowa’s chances on Thursday.
The Hawkeyes haven’t closed worse than a four-point home underdog in this matchup since 2016:
- 2022: Iowa -4 (Won 75-56)
- 2020: Iowa -12.5 (Won 105-77)
- 2018: Iowa +2 (Won 98-84)
- 2016: Iowa +6 (Won 78-64)
Records and resumes mean nothing when these two teams face off. But the Hawkeyes are coming off two Big Ten nail-biters, including Saturday’s 85-83 road loss to Michigan.
This year’s Cy-Hawk could be a potential track meet due to the pace and efficiency of both teams. Iowa State ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and 90th in pace, while Iowa is 33rd on offense and 22nd in tempo.
In a game with a lot of variance, I like getting this many points with the home team.
Prediction: Iowa +5
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