Michigan State vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 23

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North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis directs his team against Boston College during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2023, in Chapel Hill, N.C.
(AP Photo/Chris Seward)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 23, 2024, 2:08 PM
  • North Carolina (20-15) is a -3.5 point favorite vs Michigan State (19-14)
  • Total (Over/Under): 142.5 points
  • Michigan State / North Carolina TV channel: CBS

The Michigan State Spartans (19-14) visit Spectrum Center to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (20-15) on Mar. 23. Tip off is scheduled for 5:30pm EDT in Charlotte, NC.

North Carolina is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-120).

The Michigan State vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 142.5 total points.

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Michigan State vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Michigan State+3.5 +100O 142.5 -110+155
North Carolina -3.5 -120U 142.5 -110-190

Michigan State vs North Carolina Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this college basketball game with 66.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Michigan State vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 51.8% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Michigan State has hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+3.55 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Michigan State have covered the Spread in 19 of their last 35 games (+2.50 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • North Carolina have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games (+4.95 Units / 3% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Michigan State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Michigan State has a 19-14 record against the spread this college basketball season (+3.6 Units / 9.64% ROI).

  • 16-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.65 Units / -20.3% ROI
  • 14-20 when betting the Over for -8.1 Units / -21.57% ROI
  • 20-14 when betting the Under for +4.65 Units / 12.48% ROI

North Carolina Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

North Carolina has a 20-15 record against the spread this college basketball season (+3.45 Units / 8.94% ROI).

  • 23-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 3% ROI
  • 17-18 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -7.51% ROI
  • 18-17 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / -1.82% ROI

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Michigan State has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (529 assists/ 313 TOs) this season — tied for 6th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Michigan State has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,026 assists/ 683 TOs) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 9th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Michigan State has averaged 16.5 assists per game (529 assists/32 games) this season — 11th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 13.4

Michigan State is shooting 38% from three (459/1,214) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 34%

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has 931 defensive rebounds this season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina has averaged 82.5 points per game (2,641 points/32 games) this season — 11th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 73.6

North Carolina has 401 offensive rebounds this season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina has averaged 82.6 points per game (2,892 points/35 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 75.6

Michigan State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Michigan State has allowed 66.1 points per game (2,116 points/32 games) this season — tied for 21st best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 71.9

Michigan State has allowed 30.3 points per game (970 points/32 games) in the first half this season — best among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 33.6

Michigan State has allowed opponents to shoot 42% (1,564/3,734) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 30th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%

Michigan State has allowed opponents to shoot 30% from three (268/896) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 2nd best among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 32%

North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has averaged 29.1 defensive rebounds per game (931 rebounds/32 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.5

North Carolina has averaged 28.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,877 rebounds/65 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 4th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.5

North Carolina has averaged 29.1 defensive rebounds per game (931 rebounds/32 games) this season — 4th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.6

North Carolina has allowed opponents to shoot 40% (384/972) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 45%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.