New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 7

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Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez smiles after his team ties the game 14-14 during the first half of an NCAA college football game against South Carolina on Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Artie Walker Jr.)
(AP Photo/Artie Walker Jr.)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 08, 2024, 1:36 PM
  • The Jacksonville State is a -20.5 point favorite vs. New Mexico State
  • The New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN2

The New Mexico State Aggies (1-4) visit AmFirst Stadium to take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (2-3) on Oct. 9 in Jacksonville, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Jacksonville State is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-110).

The New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

Bet now on Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
New Mexico State+20.5 -11058.5 -110+800
Jacksonville State -20.5 -11058.5 -110-1400

New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Jacksonville State will win this game with 93.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico State and Jacksonville State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Jacksonville State will cover the spread with 62.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State and all games with BetMGM


  • New Mexico State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+13.65 Units / 76% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+10.70 Units / 77% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jacksonville State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jacksonville State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jacksonville State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Jacksonville State has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games at home (+0.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Jacksonville State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games at home (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for New Mexico State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best New Mexico State Player Prop Bets Today

  • Kordell David has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Jacksonville State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jacksonville State Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Anwar Lewis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico State is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.35 Units / -42.34% ROI).

  • New Mexico State is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -26.67% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 16.36% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -21.82% ROI

Jacksonville State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Jacksonville State is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.35 Units / -75.28% ROI).

  • Jacksonville State is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -57.14% ROI
  • Jacksonville State is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
  • Jacksonville State is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI

New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Jacksonville State

New Mexico State is 1-4 (.167) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .422

New Mexico State is 10-4 (.714) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .512

New Mexico State is 10-3 (.714) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .616

New Mexico State is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .632

Jacksonville State: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State

Jacksonville State is 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .554

Jacksonville State is 10-3 (.769) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .656

Jacksonville State is 7-4 (.636) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .383

Jacksonville State is 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .616

Matchup Notes for New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State has gained 1,134 yards on 85 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Jacksonville State has gained 1,134 yards on 85 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-7th-worst among FBS defenses.

Jacksonville State’s offense has thrown for 3,357 passing yards in 18 games (just 186.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 245.8 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 4.5% of 132 attempts this season — 2nd-worst among FBS offenses. Jacksonville State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 16.5% of attempts this season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico State’s RBs has rushed for 2,494 yards on 425 carries (5.9 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS RBs. Jacksonville State’s defense have allowed just 4.2 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-17th-best among FBS defenses.

New Mexico State has gained 3,382 yards on 254 receptions (13.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. Jacksonville State’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State WRs have no touchdowns on 35 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7

New Mexico State Skill Players have caught just 54 of 123 passes (44% Reception Pct) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 64%

New Mexico State WRs have caught just 35 of 92 passes (38% Reception Pct) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 62%

New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 4.5% of 132 attempts this season — 2nd-worst among FBS offenses. Jacksonville State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 16.5% of attempts this season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico State’s RBs has rushed for 2,494 yards on 425 carries (5.9 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS RBs. Jacksonville State’s defense have allowed just 4.2 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-17th-best among FBS defenses.

Jacksonville State Offensive Stats & Trends

Jacksonville State has gained 1,134 yards on 85 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Jacksonville State rushed for 7 TDs in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Offenses

Jacksonville State rushed for 8 TDs last week– most among FBS Offenses

Jacksonville State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 4.0 receptions (8 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

Jacksonville State Skill Players have averaged 22.9 yards per reception (320 yards/14 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5

New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State opponents has averaged 6.5 Passing Attempts per TD (65 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

New Mexico State opponents has averaged 6.5 Passing Attempts per TD (65 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

New Mexico State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (24 completions/65 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

New Mexico State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 18% (2 completions/11 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 53%

New Mexico State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 18% (2 completions/11 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Jacksonville State Gamecocks Defensive Stats & Trends

Jacksonville State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 5 of 16 attempts (31%) on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 9%

Jacksonville State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 5 of 16 attempts (31%) on 3rd and long this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

Jacksonville State has averaged 1.60 interceptions per game (8/5) this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 0.74

Jacksonville State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 22 of 133 attempts (17%) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

Jacksonville State has allowed 13.1 Yards per Attempt (210 yards/16 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.