Super Bowl Betting History: The Spread Rarely Matters

Tom Brady’s 8-yard first-quarter touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski erased an early 3-point deficit against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. The Bucs never trailed again, cruising to a 22-point win and an easy cover (+3) as the Super Bowl spread didn’t come into play for the 12th straight year.

That streak was finally snapped in 2022 when the Los Angeles Rams won but didn’t cover the spread in Super Bowl LVI.

Super Bowl Spreads

In a typical season, NFL spreads come into play in approximately 20% of games, i.e., the favorite wins outright but fails to cover the spread. And through the first 45 Super Bowls, the spread mattered at a similar rate (approximately 22%); seven favorites won outright but lost against the spread, and two favorites won outright but pushed against the spread. 

Until the Rams’ 3-point win as a 4.5-point favorite last year, not since LaMarr Woodley’s strip-sack of Kurt Warner in the final seconds of Super Bowl XLIII secured an outright win (but ATS) loss for the Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) over the Arizona Cardinals, had the Super Bowl spread come into play. 

And, like the Bucs’ obliteration of the Chiefs, it wasn’t close over those 12 years; the winner covered by an average of 12.2 points. Only the Green Bay Packers (XLV) and the New England Patriots (XLIX) failed to cover by at least six points, while five teams have covered by at least 10 points.

Super Bowl LVII Spread

As of Monday, Jan. 30, the Philadelphia Eagles are a 2-point favorite over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. Since Patrick Mahomes became starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs lead the league in games in which the spread was a factor.

You can view updated Super Bowl odds at the BetMGM sportsbook.