NFL Win Totals: Futures for All 32 Football Teams

min read
The NFL win totals betting market expects major regression to the mean from the Minnesota Vikings in 2023.
(AP Photo/Andy Clayton-King)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy May 18, 2023, 8:12 AM
  • NFL win totals became available at the BetMGM online sportsbook in May.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs have the highest win total at 11.5.
  • The Cardinals have the lowest win total at 5.5, which may be an overreaction.

One of my favorite parts of the online sports betting summer season is NFL win totals. 

After the schedule is released, I love to comb through the market, looking for dramatic changes in numbers between last year’s records and this year’s NFL futures market. 

Now that the BetMGM online sportsbook has released the full slate of win totals for the 2023 NFL betting season, it’s time to spend the next few months examining and re-examining every number. 

NFL Futures: Examining the Win Totals Market

Everything about the NFL is designed to force teams toward a record somewhere between 9-8 and 7-10. The NFL Draft, the salary cap — pretty much every core boundary in the sport promotes widespread parity.

As a result, most teams have a win total at or near 8.5. This year, at BetMGM, 21 of the 32 teams have a win total within one win of .500. 

Successful NFL futures bettors can identify a handful of teams in this giant jumble and establish some preseason positions. True professionals can use those as in-season hedge positions. 

Below, I’ve created a helpful spreadsheet of all 32 NFL win totals. I’ve also included the current vigs for their win totals. I’ll update these regularly. 

NFL Win Totals: Current Odds For All 32 Teams

TeamWins in 2022Win TotalOver VigUnder Vig
Chiefs1411.5-125105
Bengals1211.5100-120
49ers1311.5115-140
Eagles1410.5-150125
Bills1310.5-130110
Jaguars910.5120-145
Ravens 109.5-150125
Cowboys129.5-130110
Jets79.5-130110
Lions99.5-125105
Chargers109.5-110-110
Saints79.5100120
Dolphins99.5105-125
Browns79.5110-130
Steelers98.5-135110
Seahawks98.5-120100
Vikings138.5-110-110
Falcons78.5-110-110
Broncos58.5105-125
Giants98.5120-145
Patriots87.5-125105
Panthers77.5-125105
Bears37.5-120100
Titans77.5-105-115
Packers87.5100-120
Raiders67.5125-150
Commanders87.5125-150
Colts46.5-120100
Rams56.5-110-110
Buccaneers86.5100-120
Texans35.5-130110
Cardinals45.5125-150

Early Observations From the NFL Win Totals Market

Obviously, the most dramatic expected regression is in Minnesota, where the market expects the Vikings (13-4 last season) to struggle to remain over .500. 

NFL bettors might remember that the Vikings had a statistically aberrational 2022 season, going 11-0 in one-score games. Despite holding a 13-4 record after Week 18, the Vikings had a -3 point differential. 

The professional NFL odds handicappers will certainly expect some major regression there.


Some other quick observations that I made:

  • If you believe that the biggest problem in Denver last season was Nathaniel Hackett, new head coach Sean Peyton (and the offensive changes he installed) might very well be worth four wins.
  • The Jets made a major upgrade at quarterback, going from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers. That explains the win total of 9.5. But how much traffic for wins will the Jets face in a loaded AFC?
  • The Lions remain one of the most popular potential Super Bowl teams in the NFC, but their win total is virtually the same as the nine wins they posted a season ago.
  • Of the six teams that have win totals of 10.5 or higher, the Jaguars are the one that stands out to me as undeserving. Last year’s playoff performance showed what Jacksonville is capable of, and the AFC South is definitely lousy, but a 10.5 mark seems awfully high.
  • Arizona is a mess, and trust in Kyler Murray is low. But are we sure they should be handicapped like the absolute worst team in football?

Football Odds at BetMGM

Football odds are available at BetMGM throughout the year.

From offseason NFL futures like Super Bowl odds and win totals to preseason NFL betting lines and weekly player props, there’s something for everyone at the best online sportsbook.

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.