- The Broncos are a 10.5-point home favorite against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have won 11 straight games when playing with a rest advantage.
- My Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction is for Kansas City to cover the spread.
With a win on Sunday in Denver, the Broncos can clinch their first playoff berth since reaching Super Bowl 50.
Denver fell in overtime to the Bengals on Saturday. Still, oddsmakers have the Broncos playoff chances at -700, as they merely need a win to clinch the seventh seed in the AFC.
Kansas City clinched the top seed in the AFC with a convincing win over the Steelers on Christmas Day. On Sunday, they’ll rest key starters, including Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones.
Bet on Broncos vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 18 Odds: Broncos vs. Chiefs
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on Kansas City’s rest advantage and the success of big underdogs with extra time to prepare, my Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Spread (+10.5, -110).
While recognizing the Chiefs are going to rest their top players, this line feels like a massive overreaction. After all, it’s not as if Kansas City is going to trot out and punt on every play.
Plus, it’s a chance to fade Bo Nix, who I’m obliged to mention is 6-0 ATS as a market favorite this year.
But if Denver learned anything from Kansas City’s game against Pittsburgh, it’s that the Chiefs can’t stop the run without Chris Jones.
The Chiefs surrendered 202 yards on the ground to Pittsburgh. That marks their worst rush defensive output of the season.
If the Broncos are going to run the ball at a high frequency, it’s going to burn the clock and shorten the game. That likely inhibits Denver’s ability to cover a huge number.
At the same time, the Chiefs are likely to run the ball with Mahomes out of the lineup.
Last year, Kansas City rested starters in Week 18 against the Chargers. The Chiefs ran the ball 28 times while attempting only 30 passes.
That should further burn the clock and allow for Kansas City to keep this game close.
Lastly, big underdogs tend to reward bettors when they have ample time to prepare.
Since 2003, road dogs between +9.5 and +16.5 with 8-14 days between games are 48-26-2 ATS, assuming the opponent has 7-8 days between games.
Plus, Andy Reid is 9-5-1 ATS in Weeks 17-18 with the Chiefs, including 4-2 ATS when Mahomes isn’t starting.
As a result, take the Chiefs to stay within a big number on Sunday.
Betting Broncos vs. Chiefs: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 78% | 81% | 89% | 79% |
| Broncos | 22% | 19% | 11% | 21% |
