Chargers vs. Bengals Prediction: NFL Week 11 Odds, Betting Picks

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Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass against the Tennessee Titans during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, in Nashville, Tenn.
(George Walker IV/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Nov 15, 2024, 10:18 AM
  • The Chargers are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Bengals.
  • The Bengals have won five of the last seven as underdogs following a division game.
  • My Chargers vs. Bengals prediction is focused on the over/under.

Week 11โ€™s Sunday Night Football contest pits the Bengalsโ€™ potent offense against the Chargersโ€™ outstanding defense.ย 

In Week 10, Cincinnati fell 35-34 to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football, dropping to 4-6 on the year. Still, the Bengals are only a game out of the playoffs.ย 

Los Angeles earned a third straight win in Week 10 with a 27-17 win over the Tennessee Titans. Since their bye week, the Chargers are 4-1 SU.ย 

Bet on Chargers vs. Bengals and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Week 11 Odds: Chargers vs. Bengals

Chargers vs. Bengals Prediction

Based on the Chargersโ€™ outstanding record against the pass and the over/under record in primetime games, my Chargers vs. Bengals prediction is Under 47.5 Points (-110).ย 

Not a single Chargers game has cleared this number this season. So, part of me thinks this might be a trap.ย 

But Los Angeles has shown theyโ€™re capable of playing strong defense against good offenses.ย 

While theyโ€™ve faced only two teams 11th or better in offensive DVOA, Los Angeles surrendered 17 points in each of those contests.ย 

The Chargers also excel against the pass. Entering Week 11, Jim Harbaughโ€™s side is second in dropback EPA per play and fifth in passing defense DVOA.ย 

That should set the Chargers up for success against a Cincinnati team sixth in passing play percentage this season.ย 

The question mark in this game is how Cincinnatiโ€™s defense performs.ย 

The Bengals are 26th in the league at 26.2 points allowed per game and 27th in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.ย 

But this is a team that has played the ninth-hardest set of opposing offenses up until this point.ย 

Theyโ€™ve also shown steady improvements recently. In Weeks 1-5, the Bengals ranked 30th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate.ย 

Since Week 6, Cincinnati ranks 17th and 12th in those respective metrics.ย 

Finally, primetime games have a penchant for finishing under the total.ย 

Since 2003, games on SNF or MNF with a total between 45.5 and 52 are 59.6% to the under, including 62.5% on SNF.ย 

Just over the last three seasons, those games are 31-9 to the under, including 18-3 on Sunday Night Football.ย 

Chargers vs. Bengals: NFL Public Betting Trends

Bets% (Spread)Money% (Spread)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Bengals65%79%77%78%
Chargers35%21%23%22%

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.