- The Chargers are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Bengals.
- The Bengals have won five of the last seven as underdogs following a division game.
- My Chargers vs. Bengals prediction is focused on the over/under.
Week 11’s Sunday Night Football contest pits the Bengals’ potent offense against the Chargers’ outstanding defense.
In Week 10, Cincinnati fell 35-34 to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football, dropping to 4-6 on the year. Still, the Bengals are only a game out of the playoffs.
Los Angeles earned a third straight win in Week 10 with a 27-17 win over the Tennessee Titans. Since their bye week, the Chargers are 4-1 SU.
Bet on Chargers vs. Bengals and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Chargers vs. Bengals
Chargers vs. Bengals Prediction
Based on the Chargers’ outstanding record against the pass and the over/under record in primetime games, my Chargers vs. Bengals prediction is Under 46.5 Points (-110).
Not a single Chargers game has cleared this number this season. So, part of me thinks this might be a trap.
But Los Angeles has shown they’re capable of playing strong defense against good offenses.
While they’ve faced only two teams 11th or better in offensive DVOA, Los Angeles surrendered 17 points in each of those contests.
The Chargers also excel against the pass. Entering Week 11, Jim Harbaugh’s side is second in dropback EPA per play and fifth in passing defense DVOA.
That should set the Chargers up for success against a Cincinnati team sixth in passing play percentage this season.
The question mark in this game is how Cincinnati’s defense performs.
The Bengals are 26th in the league at 26.2 points allowed per game and 27th in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
But this is a team that has played the ninth-hardest set of opposing offenses up until this point.
They’ve also shown steady improvements recently. In Weeks 1-5, the Bengals ranked 30th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate.
Since Week 6, Cincinnati ranks 17th and 12th in those respective metrics.
Finally, primetime games have a penchant for finishing under the total.
Since 2003, games on SNF or MNF with a total between 45.5 and 52 are 59.6% to the under, including 62.5% on SNF.
Just over the last three seasons, those games are 31-9 to the under, including 18-3 on Sunday Night Football.
Chargers vs. Bengals: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Chargers vs. Bengals public betting data and insights.
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