Chargers vs. Buccaneers Prediction: NFL Week 15 Odds, Betting Picks

Looking to extend their lead atop the NFC South, the Bucs travel to Los Angeles for a meeting with the Chargers. 

Tampa Bay won their third straight game on Sunday to move to 7-6. Pair that with a Falcons loss, and the Bucs suddenly lead the division. 

Los Angeles fell in dramatic fashion on Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs due to a last-second field goal. It’s the second loss in three games for Jim Harbugh’s side. 

Bet on Chargers vs. Buccaneers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

NFL Week 15 Odds: Chargers vs. Buccaneers

Chargers vs. Buccaneers Prediction

Based on Tampa Bay’s offensive improvement and Baker Mayfield’s record as a road dog, my Chargers vs. Buccaneers prediction is the Buccaneers Spread (+3, -110). 

Very little separates these teams right now. 

The Chargers rank ninth in total DVOA whereas Tampa Bay sits 16th in that category. On the surface, that makes this spread feel right.

 But an important distinction needs to be made between these teams. 

Tampa has accomplished that rating against the fourth-hardest schedule whereas Los Angeles’ ranking comes against the eighth-easiest schedule, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Additionally, Tampa Bay carries an edge over the Chargers defense. 

The Buccaneers rank seventh in rush offense DVOA and face a Chargers unit 16th in the corresponding defensive category. 

While recognizing it has come against an easy set of defenses, the Bucs offense has radically improved with Mike Evans back in the lineup. 

Over the last three games, the Buccaneers rank seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play and ninth in offensive success rate. 

Plus, Los Angeles’s defensive metrics have taken a dive as they’ve begun to face better offenses. 

Sunday marks the fifth straight week playing a team 14th or better in offensive DVOA. 

In the last four games, the Chargers rank 18th in defensive EPA per play and 19th in defensive success rate. 

For context, the Chargers defense ranked second and fourth in those categories in Weeks 1-10. 

While the inclination for most bettors is to buy low on Los Angeles and sell high on Tampa Bay, history suggests the opposite is true. 

Since 2003, road dogs between +2.5 and +4 are 70% ATS, assuming two factors:

• The underdog’s previous game margin falls between +6 and +42
• The favorite’s previous game margin falls between -35 and -1

Those dogs improve to 92-38-11 ATS (70.8%) between +2.5 and +3.5. 

Baker Mayfield is 20-14 ATS as a road dog, including 9-2 with Tampa Bay, so I’ll take the Bucs to cover on Sunday. 

Betting Chargers vs. Buccaneers: NFL Public Betting

Check back on Friday for Chargers vs. Buccaneers public betting data and insights.