- The Chiefs are -10 against the Raiders.
- Kansas City earned a road win against the Patriots in Week 15, ending a two-game skid.
- The Raiders lost 31-17 at home to the Chiefs, and have dropped three of four.
Ahead of Week 16’s AFC West contest, I’m here to provide a Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction.
After dropping two straight against the Packers and Bills, Kansas City got back to their winning ways in Week 15. As 10-point favorites in New England, the Chiefs won 27-17.
Regarding the Raiders, they’re coming off their best performance of the season. As three-point home favorites against the Chargers, they won 63-21, ending a three-game losing streak.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Monday’s game, as well as my best bet for the contest.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Betting Odds
- Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline: -500
- Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline: +375
- Game Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -10
- Game Total: 40.5 Points
Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction
Las Vegas Raiders Spread (+10) at Kansas City Chiefs
Stomaching a bet on the Raiders after they lost at home to the Chiefs is worrisome, but Las Vegas matches a number of historically profitable trends.
When a double-digit dog has extended rest – defined here as between eight and 15 days between games – they tend to cover.
Since 2003-04, such sides are 57% against the spread, including 6-4-1 ATS since the beginning of last season.
Additionally, divisional underdogs with a total below 42 are 58.8% ATS since the 2018-19 season.
Lastly, home favorites of -3.5 or higher after playing a road game the previous week are only 41.9% ATS since 2018-19.
The Chiefs fit that criteria this week. Even if you allow for the possibility that those teams have more than eight days between games, they’re still only 34-45-2 ATS.
As a result, I’ll back the Raiders so long as they remain available at +10 or better.
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