Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: NFL Week 10 Odds, Betting Picks

Nick Hennion Nov 07, 2024, 9:39 PM

The Chiefs are a 7.5-point home favorite against the Broncos.
The Chiefs have won nine straight Sunday games against teams above .500.
My Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction centers around the over/under.

A second straight home game offers the Chiefs a chance to move to 9-0. This week, the opponent is the Broncos.

Kansas City earned an eighth straight win to start the regular season on Monday against Tampa Bay. However, the Chiefs failed to cover a sizable spread, needing overtime to win the game.

Denver recorded a terrible Week 9 result. As heavy underdogs in Baltimore, the Broncos mustered only 10 points in a 31-point blowout loss.

Bet on Chiefs vs. Broncos and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.

NFL Week 10 Odds: Chiefs vs. Broncos

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction

Based on both teams’ strength on defense and Kansas City’s short week, my Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction is the Total Under 41.5 Points (-110).

Trusting a Broncos team that just allowed 41 points to Baltimore is terrifying. However, I’m certain the entire week will be spent on defensive improvements.

The Chiefs offense is slowly finding its stride, but this offense isn’t tiered as high as Baltimore. The Ravens lead the league in offensive DVOA, while Kansas City sits ninth, per ftnfantasy.com.

Plus, the short week for the Chiefs following an overtime loss must have an impact.

Even though it’s likely lessened by playing consecutive home games, I’m electing to trust a Denver defense that allowed only 28 points to Kansas City across two games last season.

The known quantity in this game? Denver’s offense vs. Kansas City’s defense.

Kansas City ranks fourth in defensive DVOA. It’s the first time all season the Broncos play a team inside the top five.

In two prior games against teams 10th or better in defensive DVOA, the Broncos mustered only 11 points per game.

However, both of those games came against teams that are 10th or better while playing a bottom-five strength of schedule.

The Chiefs are fourth despite playing the second-hardest set of opposing offenses.

Finally, Chiefs home games with Patrick Mahomes are 31-19-1 (62%) to the under. When the total closes between 40 and 43.5 in those games: 4-0 to the under.