- The Chiefs are a 1.5-point favorite against the Eagles in Super Bowl 59.
- Jalen Hurts has won eight straight games against the AFC.
- My Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
For the second time in the last three years, the Chiefs and the Eagles will meet in the Super Bowl with history on the line.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who earned a 32-29 win over the Bills in the AFC Championship, can become the first team ever to win three straight Super Bowls.
To do so, they’ll face an Eagles side off a 55-23 blowout win against the Commanders in the NFC Championship. In Super Bowl 57, Kansas City handed Philadelphia a 38-35 defeat.
Bet on Chiefs vs. Eagles and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Super Bowl 59 Odds: Chiefs vs. Eagles
Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction
Based on the quality of both defenses and the matchup disadvantages for both offenses, my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction is Under 49.5 Points (-110).
How this total is so high remains a complete mystery to me. Accordingly, it’s the perfect time to sell high on two high-scoring games from these sides.
But those games proved as high scoring due to the lack of defensive quality from both underdogs.
The Eagles, which ranked 13th in offensive DVOA during the regular season, exposed an injured Commanders defense that ranked 23rd in the corresponding defensive category.
The issue with Philadelphia’s offense? They’ve played the easiest set of opposing defenses this season.
Dating back to Week 6, Philadelphia played only three games against teams 14th or better in defensive DVOA.
Their outputs in those games: 24 against Baltimore, 27 against Pittsburgh and 22 against Green Bay.
Now they’ll face a Chiefs defense that performs better against the run. The Chiefs rank ninth in rush defense DVOA compared to 17th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
At the same time, Philadelphia’s defense ranks first in defensive DVOA, having faced the 16th-hardest set of opposing offenses.
Dating back to Week 6, the Eagles faced seven offenses 10th or better in DVOA. Opponents averaged only 20.7 points in those seven contests.
Finally, Super Bowls featuring a high total rarely feature loads of points. Nine big games since 2003 have seen a total higher than 49 points, with seven staying under the total.
Plus, two Eagles games have closed with a total higher than 49 points this season: vs. Washington and Baltimore.
Both stayed under the total.
Pair those defensive trends with the extended rest for both teams and a lower-scoring game should be expected.
Betting Chiefs vs. Eagles: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 34% | 28% | 54% | 35% |
| Chiefs | 66% | 72% | 46% | 65% |
