- The Chiefs are an 8.5-point home favorite against the Texans.
- Kansas City is 8-0 SU at home this year, including a 27-19 win over Houston.
- My Chiefs vs. Texans prediction focuses on the pregame total.
Seeking a ninth straight win at home, the well-rested Chiefs greet the Texans in the divisional round.
Kansas City hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite some time. After clinching the top seed with a win over the Steelers in Week 17, top Chiefs have enjoyed two weeks of rest.
Houston captured a 32-12 win as home underdogs against the Chargers in the wild-card round. Now, they’ll look to topple a Kansas City side that beat Houston 27-19 in Week 16.
Bet on Chiefs vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Divisional Round Odds: Chiefs vs. Texans
Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction
Based on the extensive rest for Kansas City and Houston’s penchant for unders north of a key number, my Chiefs vs. Texans prediction is Under 42.5 Points (-110).
There’s a very narrow margin for taking this number given the past performances of Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans.
Ryans, in his career, is 20-5-1 to the under when the pregame total closes north of 42 points. When it closes at 41.5 or shorter, Ryans is 8-1 to the OVER.
Although the Texans scored 32 on Saturday, the game included a number of unlikely scores.
Houston scored nine points off an interception return for a touchdown and a blocked extra point off an 86-yard touchdown pass from Justin Herbert.
That should normalize week-over-week, especially for Houston’s offense. Although they mustered 351 in the last meeting, it came with both teams playing on short rest.
Against a rested Chiefs defense that ranks 12th in defensive DVOA, bettors should expect a lackluster effort from the Houston offense.
At the same time, Kansas City has historically proved a profitable under team at home under Patrick Mahomes.
Over the last three seasons, the Chiefs are 20-7 to the under at home when they’re listed as a home favorite, including 7-1 when the total closes under 43.5 points.
Lastly, dating back to the 2021 postseason, unders are 16-6 when the home team’s spread falls between -9.5 and -3.5, including 3-0 when the Chiefs are the hosts.
As a result, grab the under right now at 42.5 points. However, if the total falls below 42 points, it would become a pass based on Ryans’s historical record.
Betting Chiefs vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Chiefs vs. Texans public betting data and insights.
