- The Commanders are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Eagles.
- The Eagles have won each of their last 12 road games following a home win.
- My Commanders vs. Eagles prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
With a win on Sunday, the Eagles can clinch the NFC East title and continue their pursuit of the top seed in the NFC.
The Eagles earned a 27-13 win over the Steelers in Week 15, their 10th straight win to reach 12-2. In the last meeting against Washington, the Eagles came from behind to win 26-18.
Washington narrowly captured a 20-19 win over the Saints in Week 15, their second consecutive victory. This season, Washington is 2-3 ATS as a market underdog.
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NFL Week 16 Odds: Commanders vs. Eagles
Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction
Based on the Eagles’ defense and Washington’s inexperience against good defenses, my Commanders vs. Eagles prediction is Under 45.5 Points (-110).
I can simultaneously make a case for both more and fewer points based on the last meeting between these sides, which landed on 44 points.
Jake Elliott left seven points on the board for the Eagles via two missed field goals and a missed extra point.
But Philadelphia’s turnover luck led to some inherently lucky scores.
Saquon Barkley ran it in from beyond 30 yards after the Eagles recovered their own fumble in Washington territory.
The Eagles also turned Jayden Daniels over on the plus side of the field late in the fourth quarter, scoring two plays later.
Without those plays, I wonder if Washington will score a garbage time touchdown that gets this game over 40 points.
It’s also a solid sell-high spot on a Washington offense that has largely played bad defenses this season.
Although the Commanders rank sixth in the offensive DVOA, Dan Quinn’s squad has played the third-easiest set of opposing defenses.
On Sunday, they’ll face an Eagles third in defensive DVOA having played the seventh-hardest set of opposing offenses.
Trusting a bad Washington defense – 25th in defensive DVOA against the fourth-easiest set of opposing offenses – is somewhat scary.
However, the Eagles are going to run the ball heavily, and I expect that burns clock. Accordingly, expect a lower-scoring contest at Northwest Stadium.
Betting Commanders vs. Eagles: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Commanders vs. Eagles public betting data and insights.
