- The Jets are a 2.5-point home underdog against the Dolphins.
- The Jets have won seven straight January home games against AFC opponents.
- My Jets vs. Dolphins prediction is for New York to cover the spread.
With a win and help, the Miami Dolphins can snatch a playoff spot in spite of starting 2-6.
The Dolphins earned a 20-3 win over the Browns in Week 17 and sit at 8-8 entering their final game. However, they need a victory and a Broncos loss to capture the final AFC playoff spot.
The Jets suffered a 40-14 blowout loss in Buffalo on Sunday, their second straight loss by double digits. In Miami, New York fell 32-26 in overtime.
Bet on Jets vs. Dolphins and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 18 Odds: Jets vs. Dolphins
Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction
Based on Miami’s quarterback question marks and New York’s strong performance in Miami, my Jets vs. Dolphins prediction is the Jets Spread (+2.5, -110).
There’s no harm in waiting for this market to move as the week progresses. Right now, this line signals that Tyler Huntley will start his second straight game.
But if the Dolphins return Tua Tagovailoa to the lineup, this number likely balloons a few points.
As gross as it seems backing the Jets, their performance in Miami leaves room for optimism. Per PFF, that game marks their second-best grade under Jeff Ulbrich.
Plus, history suggests this is a good spot to back the Jets as divisional dogs off a blowout loss.
Since 2003, division dogs off a loss by 21 or more points facing a team with a win percentage between 44% and 61% are 53-24 ATS, including 14-6 at +3 or shorter.
Even when that game occurs late in the season, the dog tends to perform well. Sample only games from December onward and those dogs are 26-15 ATS.
Shrink the sample down to games played since the 2021 season, and those dogs improve to 15-4 ATS, including 8-0 at +3 or shorter.
The only other case for the Jets is they’re getting an untested Dolphins team.
Miami ranks 20th in DVOA, but it has come against the easiest strength of schedule in the league, per ftnfantasy.com.
Miami’s core strength is their defense, which ranks 16th in DVOA. However, it comes against the fourth-easiest set of opposing offenses.
If the Jets offense delivers a similar offensive output to their performance in Miami, there’s a chance they cover this number.
However, given the uncertainty around Miami’s quarterback, wait for news before making a bet.
Betting Jets vs. Dolphins: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Jets vs. Dolphins public betting data and insights.
