Lions Division Title Drought Won’t Stop Detroit Hype

One of the most popular NFL betting targets of the offseason continues to be Detroit Lions’ futures odds. 

Whether it’s the Lions’ NFC North odds or something a bit more ambitious, bettors absolutely cannot buy enough Detroit stock.

Given the unrelenting popularity of the pick, I thought I’d do a little market analysis on why Detroit is so popular, as well as the pros and cons of a divisional position in the futures market.

2023 NFL Week 1 betting at @BetMGM

Most bet games 🎟️
▪️ Chiefs-Lions
▪️ Bengals-Browns
▪️ 49ers-Steelers

Most bet teams 🎟️
▪️ Lions +6.5
▪️ Steelers +3
▪️ Bengals -2.5

Most bet teams 💰
▪️ Lions +6.5
▪️ Steelers +3
▪️ Ravens -9.5

— John Ewing (@johnewing) May 31, 2023

Lions Division Odds: Picking a Winner In the NFC North

The NFC North is shaping up to be a total mystery. 

The Packers have been the go-to divisional favorite for most of the last 25 years, but Lambeau will be breaking in a new quarterback or two this year. With a mostly unproven group of skill players around them and a regressing defense, Green Bay is a true underdog this year for the first time in decades.

Minnesota won the division last year and is second in the table (+300) to repeat as champion in 2023. But the Vikings were incredibly, incredibly lucky in 2022, and much has been written about their inevitable regression to the mean this fall.

Here’s the quickest way to sum it up, as written in my popular NFL Win Totals post: the Vikings were 13-4 last season. This year, with a generally similar roster, the win total is 8.5. The win totals market isn’t even sure they’re an above-.500 team. That is some serious, historically powerful luck.

I’ll also mention the Bears here, to be fair. But the Bears have a -233 point differential over the past two seasons, and we have received virtually no indication to this point that Justin Fields is going to develop into a legitimately serviceable NFL quarterback. 

That leaves the Lions. Yes, those Lions, who last won the division during the first year of Bill Clinton’s first term, in 1993, prior to the widespread existence of public internet. Somehow, those Lions are a +140 favorite to win the division.

Super Bowl line movement (Open ➡️ Now) at @BetMGM

📈
Eagles +900 to +700
Bills +900 to +800
Jets +2500 to +1600
Lions +2500 to +2000

📉
Chiefs +600 to +650
Bengals +850 to +900
Cowboys +1400 to +1600
Giants +4000 to +5000

— John Ewing (@johnewing) June 7, 2023

Here’s the case to bet on the Lions, as well as the case to be deeply suspicious of them. 

Evaluating the Detroit Lions 2022 Offense

The Lions, like the Vikings, are a team that had a very specific 2022 season. It’s not enough to just look at the end-of-year standings with them – you have to actually recall the contours of the season. 

The Lions were 3-13-1 in 2021 and started 2022 by losing six of their first seven games. Head coach Dan Campbell and the team were adamant that a turnaround was coming, but there was zero actual evidence that the Lions were suddenly going to be a great team.

Nonetheless, that’s exactly what happened. Detroit won eight of its last 10 games to finish the year, including a divisional game against the Packers in Week 18 where they had absolutely nothing to play for except pride. 

The Lions offense – showcasing an ultra-aggressive strategy on fourth down – became one of the most effective units in the NFL. It scored 20 points or more in each of its final nine games.

Perhaps most importantly, it finished the season with a 5-1 record against the NFC North, which was the best mark in the division. Minnesota was 4-2; Green Bay was 3-3; Chicago was 0-6.

If the Lions pick up 2023 where they left 2022, they will be poised to be (somewhat shockingly) one of the best teams in the NFC. That’s certainly what bettors are expecting, too, as Detroit Lions Super Bowl odds have become an extremely popular target this offseason.

As much as I’m a believer in Ben Johnson’s offense, I can’t quite get there with a big bet on the Lions to win the NFC or the Super Bowl. 

Buying the Lions to win the NFC North odds market feels like a much more reasonable step for this team. It’s the sensible and conservative approach to a big, national betting trend. Perhaps that’s why more than 75% of the divisional handle at BetMGM is behind Detroit.

I’ve already bought a small position, and I’ll look to add to it at a better number after the Lions’ likely season-opening loss in Kansas City. 

Lions Division Title Drought

The problem with these Detroit odds is a common sports betting problem. Winning is a learned skill, and a talent surplus does not always equate to championships.

In the context of NFL futures and football odds, there is a key difference between betting on Detroit as a +600 longshot and betting on Detroit as the +140 favorite. When bettors take on the risk of an unproven commodity like the Lions, they generally want advanced returns for that assumed risk. 

In this situation, the return has been totally wiped out by surging (but as-yet unrealized) expectations for the Lions. 

That’s a really fancy way of saying that a lot of bettors – including me – would like to have seen Detroit win a division at any point since the fall of the Berlin Wall if we’re going to bet an outcome at this +140 number.

From a value standpoint, it might be more financially savvy to bet on the winning infrastructure of Minnesota at +300, even if the Vikings are regression-bound. There’s even a sensible case to bet on Fields figuring it out and winning an up-for-grabs division, if the return was lucrative enough. (In my opinion, it is not.)

The betting public is going to continue to hunt for Detroit positions, and so this Lions +140 future in the NFC North will continue to be popular. The offense looks like a real weapon in a weak division and a top-heavy NFC. 

But for this kind of odds discrepancy between Detroit and the rest of the division, you’d like to be betting on a proven commodity. Instead, it’s a team with one nice two-month stretch.

That still might be better than the rest of the division.