NFL Best Bets: My 3 Top Plays For Week 10

Another Sunday is almost here, so it’s time to bet on NFL again.

As I do at the end of every week during the fall, I’m sharing three of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming Week 10 games. Tail or fade at your leisure.

NFL Best Bets: Week 10 NFL Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my three best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit. 

One rule to keep in mind: Any time there’s an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I’m almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play. 

Last week’s picks were 2-2. NFL picks in this column are now 16-12 on the season.

Vikings at Bills (-3.5)

The line movement in this game has created huge value on Buffalo.

The look-ahead number for this game was Bills -9.5. It was adjusted down to -7.5 after the Bills lost to the Jets last week, then dropped even further to -5.5 after news of Josh Allen’s UCL problems broke.

At the end of the week, it’s all the way down to -3.5, and the current vig suggests there could be a -3 or -2.5 by game time. 

This is crazy. Buffalo has a capable backup in Case Keenum that can execute whatever game plan the coaching staff has in mind. That’s assuming Allen doesn’t play. For all we know, he still might.

I talk about buy-low spots often in this column and on The Lion’s Edge, and this is the definition of a buy-low. What on Earth has Kirk Cousins done to make us think he can go on the road and compete against a top-flight Super Bowl contender?

Play: Bills -3.5

Browns at Dolphins (-3.5)

We’ve got another 3.5-point home favorite in this spot, but I actually like the total here. 

Cleveland has quietly been the best team in the NFL odds landscape for overs. This week, the Browns head to Miami to play a Dolphins team that has shown it knows how to score touchdowns. 

The number is up from the BetMGM online sportsbook’s opening position of 48.5, but it’s still too low. Cleveland’s defense is lacking. This number should be in the low 50s. 

Play: Browns/Dolphins Over 49.5

Cowboys at Packers (+4.5)

This number jumps off the page as an under target. The Dallas defense is rested and off a bye, heading north to contain a Packers offense that looks more mortal than ever. 

Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers are no strangers to offense, which probably explains why so many square bettors are on the over at a relatively low number. But the Cowboys love to play games in the 24-10 range this year, which is exactly what I’m expecting here. 

Play: Cowboys/Packers Under 43

NFL Parlay for Week 10

Pretty simple strategy here, as I’m selecting three good teams to win outright at home against three bad teams.

• New York Giants -225
• Kansas City Chiefs -450
• Philadelphia Eagles -500

That’s a three-team parlay that pays +111.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Want to check out the full NFL Week 10 podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe to The Lion’s Edge for intelligent, weekly insights into trends and betting tips across the online sports betting world. It’s available on iTunes, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

You can also listen to it in the web player below.