NFL Division Winner Predictions for 2026 Season

Below, bettors can find my NFL division winner predictions for the 2026 season based on NFL odds.

The 2025 season produced a number of surprise division winners. Only one preseason favorite to win the division did so (Philadelphia), while two teams went from worst to first.

This year’s division winner odds expect many new winners. Of the eight division winners last year, only one (Philadelphia) is a favorite to repeat as division champions.

Let’s dive into the early predictions for this season. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

4 Best NFL Division Winner Predictions for 2026

New Orleans Saints to Win NFC South (+280)

Based on New Orleans’ improvement with Tyler Shough and the 2025 defensive record, I predict the New Orleans Saints (+280) win the NFC South in 2026.

A 5-4 finish with Shough helped New Orleans rebound from a 1-7 start to 2025. Even with the strong finish, New Orleans still finished last in the NFC South.

The good news? That placement earns Kellen Moore’s team the second-easiest schedule next year by opponent win totals.

In terms of unique opponents, New Orleans carries a massive edge over their NFC South rivals. Here are the win totals for the three unique opponents in that division:

• New Orleans: 17.5
• Atlanta: 28.5
• Tampa Bay: 29.5
• Carolina: 30.5

The entire division faces the AFC & NFC North, so New Orleans gains a ton of ground with matchups against Las Vegas, Arizona and the Giants. Two of those games come at home.

Within the NFC South, New Orleans finished 3-3 last season with all three wins coming behind Shough.

If there’s a knock against the 2025 second-round pick, it’s his lack of experience in high-leverage situations. Last year, he took only 52% of snaps with a 30-70% win percentage.

But Shough led the NFL in expected completion percentage in those 171 plays (70.4%, min. 150 plays). His 1.1% completion percentage over expected ranked 13th of 31st.

Further contributing to my belief in New Orleans is the defensive improvement. DC Brandon Staley took the unit from 21st in DVOA two years ago to 13th last year.

Last year, the defense improved exponentially as it faced easier competition. From Week 1-9, the defense ranked 21st in EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate.

From Week 10 onward: second and first, respectively.

Next season, New Orleans projects to face an easier schedule of offenses. Last season, the defense cumulatively faced the league’s 12th-hardest schedule.

By 2025 opponent offensive DVOA ratings, only two teams – Indianapolis and Cincinnati – face an easier set of offenses.

Given those factors, I like the Saints’ price to go from worst to first in a weak division.

Cincinnati Bengals to Win AFC North (+200)

Based on the positive regression potential and the easy schedule of opposing offenses, I predict the Cincinnati Bengals (+200) win the AFC North in 2026.

Unless you think the Shedeur Sanders-led Browns are primed for a division title, the AFC North is Cincinnati’s to lose.

By 2026 season win totals, the Bengals play the NFL’s third-easiest schedule. Outside the division, the Bengals face only three games against teams with win totals set at 9.5 or higher.

That should help Zac Taylor’s quad positively regress from last year – the team finished 1.4 wins under expected.

Driving that underperformance? A 3-5 record in one-possession games. It coincided with a season where Joe Burrow missed significant time.

Even accounting for Jake Browning’s starts, the offense finished 13th in offensive DVOA. Two years ago, a Burrow-led offense finished fifth in the NFL.

The big question mark is the Bengals’ defense. The good news? Cincinnati projects to face easy competition with an improved unit.

By 2025 offensive DVOA records, Cincinnati projects to face the 27th-hardest set of opposing offenses. A two-year blended average projects that they face the league’s easiest set of offenses.

Assuming the offense stays healthy, Cincinnati – in my estimation – carries the highest offensive ceiling within the division.

That renders the Bengals an intriguing division prediction at 33.3% implied probability.

Detroit Lions to Win the NFC North (+175)

Based on their easy schedule in 2026 and projected injury improvement, my NFC North prediction is for the Detroit Lions (+175) to win the division.

It probably didn’t feel good at the moment, but Detroit’s Week 17 loss at Minnesota benefitted them greatly in 2026.

Detroit’s loss granted Minnesota the tiebreaker with both teams finishing 9-8. Now, the Lions get a massive advantage in arguably the NFL’s hardest division.

Detroit’s unique opponents – Tennessee, New York (N) and Arizona – cumulatively possess an 18.5-game win total.

Next closest within the division? The Vikings at 26.5, with Green Bay and Chicago projected for 28.5 and 30.5, respectively.

By cumulative win totals, the Lions face the NFL’s easiest schedule in 2026. Green Bay places second in the NFC North, with the 16th-hardest schedule.

Even if you set those numbers aside, the Lions should expect massive improvement by two other factors.

Detroit finished a full win under expectation last season thanks to a 3-5 record in one-score games, per ftnfantasy.com.

Dan Campbell’s squad also lost all four games against Green Bay and Minnesota. Is that likely to happen again? Almost certainly not.

The Lions also dealt with a number of injuries last year while losing both coordinators. Detroit lost 326 games to injury last year, second to Chicago (336).

The difference? Chicago gets a first-place schedule while Detroit faces a last-place schedule.

Pair better injury fortune with an advantageous schedule, and I predict the Lions claim back the NFC North in 2026.

Kansas City Chiefs (+180) to Win AFC West

Based on Kansas City’s easy schedule, positive regression metrics and presumed improved results in the division, I predict the Kansas City Chiefs (+180) win the AFC West.

The more I think about this division, the more I become skeptical of Denver and Los Angeles.

Both teams built their 2025 success off defense, particularly Denver. Of the four outcomes in this division, a repeat title by Denver would surprise me the most.

I outlined my case in my 2026 NFL playoff predictions. Essentially, Denver lacks the defensive depth to handle a tougher schedule as a massive regression candidate.

Then there’s Los Angeles, which lost defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. They’ve also built their defensive success over the last two years against a very easy schedule:

• 2024: 9th in defensive DVOA vs. 27th-hardest schedule
• 2025: 10th in defensive DVOA vs. 29th-hardest schedule

Las Vegas offers intrigue purely based on price. However, the lack of receiving depth gives me pause when comparing the team to Kansas City and Los Angeles.

Kansas City offers the highest offensive ceiling in the division. It also appears Patrick Mahomes is trending toward a return for the start of the regular season.

He’ll lead a team facing the division’s easiest schedule by 2026 NFL win totals.

Granted, the Chiefs play a harder set of unique opponents than Denver, but I trust their ascent within the division.

Kansas City dropped from 5-1 in AFC West contests two years ago to 1-5 in 2025. Two of those losses came with Chris Oladokun quarterbacking the offense.

I remain skeptical of the defense, but I like the addition of Kenneth Walker III to the offense.

First-round pick Mansoor Delane helps at corner after the departures of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

Last year, Kansas City’s five divisional losses came by 21 combined points. I expect some positive regression in that category as the Chiefs reclaim the AFC West.

NFL Division Winner Odds

• AFC East
• AFC North
• AFC South
• AFC West
• NFC East
• NFC North
• NFC South
• NFC West