Rams vs. Saints Prediction: 3 Bets for Week 16, Thursday Night Football

Ahead of Week 16’s Thursday Night Football contest, I’m here to provide a trio of Rams vs. Saints predictions. 

Both teams enter this game in good form as they attempt to secure prime positioning for the playoffs. 

New Orleans can only advance as division winners, given their 7-7 record. However, they enter this game with two straight wins and are only behind the Bucs on a tiebreaker. 

Los Angeles, meanwhile, currently holds one of three wild card spots thanks to four wins in their last five games. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Thursday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest. 

Rams vs. Saints Betting Odds

• Los Angeles Rams Moneyline: -200
• New Orleans Saints Moneyline: +165
• Game Spread: Los Angeles Rams -4
• Game Total: 46 Points

Rams vs. Saints Predictions

Same Game Parlay: Rams Moneyline & Kyren Williams 100+ Rushing Yards (+160)

This season, the Rams have dominated teams on the ground. They’re sixth in rush EPA per play and fifth in run success rate. 

Now he gets a Saints defense that has dropped off recently at defending the run. New Orleans is eighth and sixth, respectively, in the corresponding defensive categories for the year. 

However, since Week 12, New Orleans sits 27th and 11th in rush EPA per play and rush success rate allowed. 

Plus, there’s a bit of correlation within this play. In the last four games – three of which were wins – Williams cleared 100 yards on three occasions. 

As for the first element of this parlay, it’s my opinion the Rams are a much better team. 

Since Matthew Stafford has returned from injury, Los Angeles is 4-1 straight up and sits fifth in EPA per play.

With the Rams playing back-to-back home games on short rest, expect them to improve to 5-1 as they hunt down a playoff spot. 

Kyren Williams Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

Until they produce back-to-back strong run defense performances, I’m going to continue to fade this Saints defense. 

Los Angeles sits 10th in EPA per play this season, including seventh in rush EPA per play. 

Just since Week 10, the Rams are fourth and eighth, respectively, in those two metrics. 

Prior to their performance against the Giants – they held New York to only 60 rushing yards – New Orleans surrendered two 200+ yard outputs in three previous games. 

Since Week 10, New Orleans’ run defense is 19th in EPA per play and 12th in rush success rate. 

That should allow Williams to thrive. This season, he’s 5-5 against this number but has reached 88 yards in six. 

Since returning from injury in Week 12, he’s amassed at least 88 yards in all four games and has cleared this number in three of four. 

In what I expect to be a positive game script for Thursday’s hosts, back Williams to clear this number for a third straight game. 

Blake Grupe Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-110)

The Rams defense leaves something to be desired, but I still don’t trust the Saints red zone offense. 

Although they’ve posted a 90% touchdown percentage rate over their last three games, all three contests came at home against bad defenses: the Giants, Panthers and Lions. 

Plus, they’re still 21st in red zone percentage despite that feat. 

Although Los Angeles generally allows opponents to move the ball – they’re 21st in DVOA – they’re simultaneously 12th in red zone touchdown percentage. 

Given New Orleans is fifth-worst in road red zone percentage, Grupe should see ample opportunities to score. 

This season, Grupe has cleared this number in eight games. Shrink the sample down to seven road games, and bettors will find he’s eclipsed this number five times. 

As a result, this shapes up a perfect buy-low spot on the Saints kicker, who has finished under this number in three straight games.