- The overrated home favorite I’m fading
- The total bet I’m making for Steelers vs. Raiders.
- Why defense could be on full display in Green Bay.
Thursday Night Football and the remaining 15-game slate for Week 3 are just around the corner.
After evaluating NFL odds throughout the week, I’ve identified three picks that stand out across the entire slate. These three picks will complete my betting card for Week 3, along with my two early Week 3 picks.
Without further delay, let’s get to the picks.
NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions
Denver Broncos Spread (+6.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Broncos are untrustworthy favorites, but this is simply too many points.
Not to mention the fact Sean Payton is brilliant against the spread, particularly when he’s an underdog. For his career, the Super Bowl winner is 61.3% ATS when he’s an underdog compared to 52.7% as a favorite.
The same can be said of Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. As a favorite, Wilson is 46.4% ATS for his career compared to 68.1% ATS as an underdog.
From a matchup standpoint, Denver should score enough points to keep up with Miami. The Dolphins defense ranks 21st in defensive DVOA, while Denver enters seventh in the corresponding offensive metric.
Specifically, the Broncos running game should exploit a weak Miami running defense. Entering their Week 3 matchup, Denver is seventh in rush offense DVOA.
On the flip side, Miami is 29th in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Back the Broncos at +5 or better.
Packers-Saints Total Under 42.5 Points (-110)
Although the competition leaves something to be desired, this Saints defense has looked very impressive in the early goings.
Through two games, New Orleans sits fourth in defensive DVOA, including third against the pass.
For all of last season, the Saints finished ninth in defensive DVOA and fifth in pass defense DVOA.
That sets up well against the Packers, who are second in pass offense DVOA and 27th in rush defense DVOA through their first two games.
Conversely, this Packers defense has looked solid in their first two games. Across both, they rank 11th in defensive DVOA.
Although most of that record can be attributed to their performance against the Bears, Green Bay surrendered only 20 points per game at home last season.
That should put them in a good position against a Saints team on short rest. Back the under at 41.5 or better.
Steelers-Raiders Total Under 43 Points (-110)
The Steelers can’t count on 14 points from their defense each game, making this a perfect spot to back the under.
After a positive pre-season, Pittsburgh’s offense looked inept in the first two games. Although they faced stiff competition, they still ranked 32nd in offensive DVOA.
They likely won’t find loads of success against the Raiders, whose defensive performance I suspect will look more like their effort against Denver rather than Buffalo.
Plus, this was a Pittsburgh offense that averaged only 16.6 road points per game last season, good for sixth-worst in the NFL.
It’s tough to place trust in the Raiders defense, but their home opener feels like a good spot to do so.
Add in Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 12th in defensive DVOA, and it’s my opinion the Raiders will struggle to score.
Given these sides combined for only 23 points in a head-to-head meeting last season, this number feels too high. Take the under at 42 points or better.
NFL Same Game Parlays
Parlays are a great way to take your NFL betting to the next level. And at the online sportsbook, you can build parlays with a single game.
Same Game Parlays allow bettors to add multiple bets within the same game to increase the excitement and potential payout. You can also combine Same Game Game Parlays with Same Game Parlay Plus (SGP+).
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome bonus — to start betting. And don’t forget to check updated sportsbook bonuses and promos each day of the year.
