Best NFL Picks & Predictions, Super Bowl LVIII

NFL Super Bowl LVIII Betting Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (+100) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Disclaimer: this is largely a hedge against a 49ers Super Bowl future (+170) I bet on January 15. 

That said, the line has already moved 10 cents in the direction of Kansas City, and I would bet this so long as the Chiefs are underdogs at +100 or better. 

Just in terms of the eye test, the 49ers needed loads of luck in the NFC Championship game to even be in this position. 

Down 24-7 at halftime, they needed a Brandon Aiyuk 51-yard reception that should have been intercepted to score AND a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble in Detroit territory to get themselves back in the game. 

Those types of plays simply aren’t going to happen against the Chiefs, who have yet to turn the ball over on offense this postseason. 

Plus, what really worries me about this 49ers team is their inability to stop the run. 

The Lions generated 6.3 yards per rush against the 49ers, who also surrendered 4.9 yards per rush against the Packers in the divisional round. 

For the entire season, the 49ers are 25th in rush EPA per play allowed and 27th in rushing success rate allowed. 

Even since acquiring Chase Young in Week 10, they’re 19th in rush EPA per play allowed and 23rd in rush success rate allowed. 

Although the Chiefs managed only 2.8 yards per attempt on the ground in Baltimore, they thrived in earlier postseason games. 

Against the Bills and Dolphins, who finished the regular season 17th and 16th in rush defense DVOA, they averaged 6.1 and 4.3 yards per rush, respectively. 

Given the 49ers ranked 15th in rush defense DVOA during the regular season, expect Kansas City to dominate on the ground. 

Lastly, Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog for his career, and postseason underdogs that move by at least half a point are 69.2% ATS. 

For those reasons, take the Chiefs to win their third Super Bowl in five years.

49ers Team Total Under 24.5 Points (-125)

Fading the 49ers’ potent offense basically has my heart in my throat. 

But, although they’ve cleared this number in all but six games this year, it’s come against an easy set of opposing defenses. 

San Francisco ranks first in both offensive DVOA and EPA per play, but they’ve faced the 23rd-hardest strength of schedule, per ftnfantasy.com. 

To date, they’ve faced only two defenses this season ranking fifth or better in EPA per play and have stayed under 24 points in both games. 

Even if you want to set aside a 17-point performance in Cleveland without Deebo Samuel, the fact remains they managed only 19 points against Baltimore at home. 

Now they face a Chiefs defense I’m not sure the market fully respects. 

The Chiefs are fifth in EPA per play and seventh in defensive DVOA, including fifth in pass defense DVOA. 

Even if you sample Kansas City’s four games against sides fifth or better in offensive EPA per play, bettors will find they’ve kept three sides under this number. 

Expand the sample to sides 10th or better in EPA per play, and bettors will discover Kansas City held seven of those eight opponents under this number. 

In those games, only three teams managed three or more offensive touchdowns. 

Game state also matters here, too. 

Given I trust Kansas City’s defense more than San Francisco’s, it’s reasonable to expect the Chiefs to take an early lead. 

If they keep that lead, it will force more passes from San Francisco against a side that excels against the pass (third in passing EPA per play from Week 1 to 17 and the playoffs). 

Take the under on San Francisco’s team total so long as it stays at 24.5 or better.

Second Half Total Under 23.5 Points (-115)

By applying some of the information I outlined in How to Live Bet the Super Bowl, bettors can take this market now and either buy out or double down at halftime. 

The biggest factor in making that decision is whether the first half total goes over or under the pregame number of 22.5. 

If you read my Super Bowl LVIII First Half Prediction, you know I like the under. 

The biggest worry here is that in five 49ers games that finished under the first half total, the second half total is 3-2 to the over, including 1-1 in non-conference games. 

However, every other signal points to the under. 

In Chiefs games that finish under the first half total by at least half a point, the second half under is 5-1. 

Even if the first half goes over by a narrow margin – let’s say it lands on 24 points – the second half under is 10-1 in Kansas City games. 

But let’s say the first half features 20 or fewer points. 

Five Chiefs games this season have finished under the first half total by at least 2.5 points. All five went on to finish under the second half total. 

That’s a stronger indicator of success than the 49ers’ record when the first half finishes under the total, so I’m willing to take a risk and back it. 

Plus, if the first half proves low-scoring, it likely means the Chiefs are ahead. 

That will force the 49ers into a pass-heavy game script and attack a Chiefs defense that’s third in passing EPA per play. 

That said, if the Chiefs find themselves behind at halftime, I would buy out of this number. 

However, if bettors see the first half go under, I would double down at halftime and bet it again.