NFL Week 5 Picks, Predictions & Odds

Below are my NFL Week 5 picks for the 2024-25 NFL regular season. 

Get the full list of NFL betting lines for Week 5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions

Bears vs. Panthers Prediction

Due to the Bears’ offensive struggles and Carolina’s improvement under Andy Dalton, my Bears vs. Panthers prediction is the Carolina Panthers Spread (+4, -110). 

What a fantastic buy-low spot on Carolina against a Chicago team likely to attract public betting attention. 

If Chicago covers this game, it’s because their offense comes to life. The issue? Through four weeks, Chicago is 29th in PFF’s offensive grades, including 31st through the air. 

Accordingly, I question Chicago’s ability to obliterate this Carolina defense, which just surrendered 34 points to a far better Bengals offense. 

Plus, there’s a clear-cut edge for Carolina’s offense. For all their issues this season, the Panthers are 15th in PFF’s rushing grades. 

In Week 5, they get a Bears defense 25th in the corresponding defensive category. 

The Panthers also match a historically profitable system in this spot. 

Conference underdogs between +1 and +6 in games 4-7 against an opponent on a one-game winning streak are 64% ATS since 2003, assuming the game isn’t at a neutral site. 

At +3.5 or higher, those underdogs improve to 69% ATS. 

Take the Panthers at +3.5 or better in Week 5. 

Seahawks vs. Giants Prediction

Based on New York’s rest edge in this spot and Geno Smith’s sub-par record as a favorite, my prediction for Seahawks vs. Giants is the Giants Spread (+6.5, -110). 

I’m grabbing this while it’s on a key number right now, but there’s a chance this goes up if the Seahawks win on Monday night. 

Either way, it’s a terrible spot for the Seahawks. 

The Giants last played on Thursday Night Football and have a mini-bye for their Sunday trip to Seattle. Conversely, Seattle plays on short rest after a road Monday night game. 

New York passed the eye test for me against the Cowboys. While Dallas’ defense is far inferior to Seattle’s, Daniel Jones posted his best passing grade of the season, per PFF. 

Their coverage was also outstanding, with CeeDee Lamb’s 55-yard touchdown grab accounting for 25% of Dallas’ passing yardage for the game. 

Geno Smith has also historically struggled as a big favorite. He’s 11-16-2 ATS in general as a market favorite, including 5-10 ATS at -3.5 or higher. 

The Giants also match a historically profitable system. 

Since 2004, non-divisional road underdogs between +2.5 and +7 in games 2-5 are 68% ATS, assuming two factors:

• The team’s previous game margin is between -17 and -1
• The previous game the opponent was the underdog 

When those dogs fall between +5.5 and +7: 22-6 ATS. 

Take the Giants down to +5.5 in Week 5.

Texans vs. Bills Prediction

Based on Houston’s tendencies to play close games and a historical angle suggesting a bet on Buffalo, my Texans vs. Bills prediction is the Buffalo Bills Spread (-1, -110). 

What an amazing buy-low opportunity on the Bills, who received a 35-10 thumping in Baltimore on Sunday night. 

Now they get a Texans team that needed a last-second score to beat the lowly Jaguars. 

I don’t place much stock into Buffalo’s loss, though. It was a matchup nightmare for their run defense against Derrick Henry….on a short week. 

But Buffalo’s edge over Houston is clear. The Bills are first in PFF’s rush offense grades, while Houston is 16th in the corresponding defensive category. 

While I worry about C.J. Stroud blitzing Buffalo’s zone-heavy pass defense, Buffalo’s glaring weakness is actually their run defense. 

Per PFF, the Bills are 26th against the run compared to 13th against the pass. 

Buffalo also matches a historically profitable system in this spot. 

Road teams playing a conference game in games 3-9 priced between -1.5 and +5.5 are 64% ATS, assuming their previous ATS margin is between -34 and -6. 

When those teams posted an ATS margin between -34 and -21.5: 23-7 ATS (76.7%). 

Grab Buffalo today under all the key numbers in Houston.

Steelers vs. Cowboys Prediction

Due to mounting injuries on the Cowboys defensive front and Pittsburgh’s strong defensive play this season, my Steelers vs. Cowboys prediction is the Pittsburgh Steelers Spread (-2.5, -110). 

Dallas has a rest advantage over the Steelers by way of playing on Thursday in Week 4. However, they also have two key injuries plaguing their defense. 

Both Micah Parsons (doubtful) and DeMarcus Lawrence (injured reserve) are likely out on Sunday. 

That hampers an already questionable Dallas defense against a weak Pittsburgh offensive line. 

If Dallas can’t get pressure, I question how their defense, currently 32nd in PFF’s defensive grades, holds up against the Steelers. 

Even if they do manage to play well, explain to me how Dallas’ offense accomplishes anything meaningful. 

Dallas’ offensive line is 21st and 24th, respectively, in pass- and run-blocking grades. Defensively, Pittsburgh leads the league in pressure grades. 

If Alex Highsmith returns, it will give the Cowboys’ rookie tackles nightmares against Highsmith and T.J. Watt. 

Take the Steelers so long as the spread stays under -3. 

Chiefs vs. Saints Prediction

As a function of Kansas City’s lucky run this season and New Orleans’ unlucky result in Week 4, my prediction for Chiefs vs. Saints is the New Orleans Saints Spread (+5, -110). 

Variance resigned the Saints to a 26-24 defeat in Week 4 against the Falcons. However, it came in a game where they allowed zero offensive touchdowns. 

Atlanta’s 26 points came from four field goals, a fumble recovery in the end zone off a muffed punt and an interception return for a touchdown. 

New Orleans remains a strong defense – they’re sixth in PFF’s defensive grades – while sitting second in the offensive rankings. 

They’re also a 2-2 team with an expected win-loss record of 3.2-0.8, according to pro-football-reference.com. 

Kansas City’s offense is also decimated by injuries right now. 

Rashee Rice is likely joining Hollywood Brown on the sidelines for the remainder of the season while Isiah Pacheco is out on Monday. 

Kansas City’s pass defense is also 21st in PFF’s coverage grades and New Orleans leads the league in the corresponding offensive category. 

Finally, Derek Carr is 29-19 ATS as an underdog of +5 or higher, including 19-8 ATS as dog of +5 or higher off a loss. 

Take the Saints at +4.5 or better in Week 5.

NFL Live Betting Predictions

Atlanta Falcons Prediction: Make or Miss the Playoffs

Based on the Falcons’ Week 1 result, I predict the Falcons Miss the Playoffs (+105). 

I’m treating this bet more as an arbitrage opportunity. 

It’s my opinion all four NFC South teams are going to lose in Week 2. None of the four division occupants are shorter than +200 on the moneyline. 

That makes Week 3 critical for which team is, in my opinion, going to be the sole representative in the playoffs.  

In Week 3, New Orleans hosts Philadelphia, Tampa Bay hosts Denver, Carolina visits Las Vegas and Atlanta hosts Kansas City. 

Even worse? Atlanta has to play Kansas City at a rest disadvantage. 

Per Sharp Football Analysis, Kansas City finished 13-2 SU last season when they didn’t play with a rest disadvantage of two or more days. 

If results go as I anticipate, Atlanta could close an underdog to make the playoffs following Week 3. 

The good news? Atlanta’s final 14 games see them play only one team with a preseason win total higher than nine wins. 

That makes this a good arbitrage opportunity on Atlanta.