Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction: NFL Week 11 Odds, Betting Picks

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws during an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, Monday, Dec. 25, 2023, in Santa Clara, Calif.
(Scot Tucker/AP Photo)
  • The Steelers are a 3-point home underdog against the Ravens.
  • The Steelers have won five straight games as underdogs against the Ravens.
  • My Steelers vs. Ravens prediction focuses on the first half spread.

Pittsburghโ€™s first division game of the season comes in Week 11 at home against the Baltimore Ravens.ย 

Pittsburgh (7-2 SU & ATS) sits atop the AFC North. Mike Tomlinโ€™s side has won four games in a row, including a 28-27 win over the Commanders last week.ย 

Baltimore (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) also captured a narrow 35-34 win on TNF in Week 10 against the Bengals. After starting 0-2, Baltimore has earned seven wins from eight.ย 

Bet on Steelers vs. Ravens and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Week 11 Odds: Steelers vs. Ravens

Dec 25 - 1 pm EST

Chiefs at Steelers

Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction

Based on the Steelersโ€™ lackluster starts and Lamar Jacksonโ€™s strong first half record, my Steelers vs. Ravens prediction is the Ravens 1H Spread (-2.5, -110).ย 

Lost in the Steelersโ€™ success this season is the fact they have played terribly in the opening half.ย 

The Steelers are 3-6 ATS in the first half, which is tied for the fewest ATS results in the league. The moneyline is worse with Pittsburgh going 2-6-1 (W-L-T) in first halves this season.ย 

Even if you just look at starts behind Russell Wilson: 0-2-1 (W-L-T) in the first half. And that came against the Giants, Jets and Commanders!ย 

Now Pittsburgh faces Baltimore, which is 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the first half this season.ย 

Plus, Jackson excels in the first half when heโ€™s faced with a small spread.ย 

For his career, the two-time MVP is 21-6-1 ATS in the first half when the spread falls between -3 and -0.5. Even when those games are divisional contests, the Louisville product is 7-2 ATS.ย 

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh also dominates early when heโ€™s handed extended time to prepare.ย 

Harbaugh is 33-19-1 ATS in the first half when the Ravens have eight or more days between games. When that game is a divisional contest: 14-5 ATS for Harbaugh.ย 

From a metrics standpoint, Baltimore leads the league in 1H EPA per play and success rate.ย 

Itโ€™s the second straight week the Steelers play a team fitting that profile. Last week, they fell behind 17-14 at the half, although that game featured a fluky Washington touchdown.ย 

But the rest advantage for Baltimore renders this a great spot on the visitors. Back them to produce a strong start in the first 30 minutes.ย 

Steelers vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting Trends

Bets% (Spread)Money% (Spread)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Ravens53%55%30%32%
Steelers47%45%70%68%

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.