- The Steelers are a 3-point home underdog against the Ravens.
- The Steelers have won five straight games as underdogs against the Ravens.
- My Steelers vs. Ravens prediction focuses on the first half spread.
Pittsburgh’s first division game of the season comes in Week 11 at home against the Baltimore Ravens.
Pittsburgh (7-2 SU & ATS) sits atop the AFC North. Mike Tomlin’s side has won four games in a row, including a 28-27 win over the Commanders last week.
Baltimore (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) also captured a narrow 35-34 win on TNF in Week 10 against the Bengals. After starting 0-2, Baltimore has earned seven wins from eight.
Bet on Steelers vs. Ravens and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Steelers vs. Ravens
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
Based on the Steelers’ lackluster starts and Lamar Jackson’s strong first half record, my Steelers vs. Ravens prediction is the Ravens 1H Spread (-2.5, -110).
Lost in the Steelers’ success this season is the fact they have played terribly in the opening half.
The Steelers are 3-6 ATS in the first half, which is tied for the fewest ATS results in the league. The moneyline is worse with Pittsburgh going 2-6-1 (W-L-T) in first halves this season.
Even if you just look at starts behind Russell Wilson: 0-2-1 (W-L-T) in the first half. And that came against the Giants, Jets and Commanders!
Now Pittsburgh faces Baltimore, which is 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the first half this season.
Plus, Jackson excels in the first half when he’s faced with a small spread.
For his career, the two-time MVP is 21-6-1 ATS in the first half when the spread falls between -3 and -0.5. Even when those games are divisional contests, the Louisville product is 7-2 ATS.
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh also dominates early when he’s handed extended time to prepare.
Harbaugh is 33-19-1 ATS in the first half when the Ravens have eight or more days between games. When that game is a divisional contest: 14-5 ATS for Harbaugh.
From a metrics standpoint, Baltimore leads the league in 1H EPA per play and success rate.
It’s the second straight week the Steelers play a team fitting that profile. Last week, they fell behind 17-14 at the half, although that game featured a fluky Washington touchdown.
But the rest advantage for Baltimore renders this a great spot on the visitors. Back them to produce a strong start in the first 30 minutes.
Steelers vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 53% | 55% | 30% | 32% |
| Steelers | 47% | 45% | 70% | 68% |
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