49ers Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for San Francisco

As of Jan. 22, the 49ers Super Bowl odds are +145 , an implied probability of 40.8%. Prior to the 2024 NFL season, San Francisco was +900 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess effective -300 odds – their moneyline against the Detroit Lions, an implied probability of 75% – to win the NFC Championship at BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The 49ers are also an extremely popular team amongst sports bettors. At 9.6% of tickets and 17.7% of the futures handle, they own the highest ticket and handle percentage. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

The 49ers are my pick to win this year’s Super Bowl in Las Vegas. 

It’s admittedly a chalky pick given the 49ers are the favorite, but there’s betting calculus behind it. 

This season, three of San Francisco’s four losses have come to AFC teams – the Browns, Bengals, and Ravens. 

In two of those games – vs. Cincinnati and at Cleveland – wide receiver Deebo Samuel didn’t play and played only nine snaps, respectively. 

Samuel, along with star running back Christian McCaffrey, make the 49ers a markedly better offense. 

Since acquiring McCaffrey, the 49ers have lost only three games in which both players participate. 

If you shrink the sample to games in which those two and Brock Purdy play, they’ve lost only two – at home to Baltimore this year and against Kansas City last year. 

They’ve also dominated their conference as of late; they’re 10-1 within the NFC this season. 

Their only loss? At Minnesota playing back-to-back road games without Samuel, i.e., a terrible spot. 

Given they possess home-field advantage throughout the playoffs – they’re perfect against NFC opponents at home dating back to last season – I’ll be shocked if San Francisco doesn’t reach the Super Bowl. 

From there, bettors can either ride out this ticket or hedge on the AFC side, given oddsmakers have already shown San Francisco would be a favorite against Baltimore.