- The Titans are a 6-point home underdog against the Vikings.
- The Vikings have won each of their last nine Sunday games as road favorites.
- My Titans vs. Vikings prediction focuses on the Titans team total.
The Vikings aim for a third straight win on Sunday in Nashville against the Titans.
Minnesota survived three Sam Darnold turnovers to capture a 12-7 win in Jacksonville last Sunday. At 7-2, Minnesota sits only a game behind the Lions in the division.
Tennessee dropped its fourth game in the last five on Sunday, falling to 2-7. This season, Tennessee’s only victories came with Mason Rudolph taking a majority of snaps.
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NFL Week 11 Odds: Titans vs. Vikings
Nov 17 - 1 pm ESTVikings at Titans
Titans vs. Vikings Prediction
Based on Will Levis’ poor record against pressure and the Vikings’ strong defense, my Titans vs. Vikings prediction is the Titans Under 14.5 Points (+120).
Minnesota has a strong record this season, keeping bad teams under this number.
Only the Lions, Rams, Packers, 49ers and Jets have overtook this number against the Vikings. Put simply, the Titans aren’t on the level of those offenses.
While it’s slightly concerning Tennessee has cleared this total in all but three contests, I don’t trust Levis against a blitz-heavy defense.
Amongst 38 quarterbacks with at least 98 dropbacks, Levis ranks 38th in PFF’s offensive and passing grades against pressure.
He’s also facing a Vikings defense leading the league in defensive DVOA having faced the sixth-hardest set of opposing offenses.
Meanwhile, the Titans rank 27th in the corresponding offensive category having faced the 12th-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Let’s also take a moment to appreciate Minnesota’s performance last week against Jacksonville.
Albeit against a backup quarterback, the Vikings held an offense 16th in DVOA and 15th in rush DVOA to seven points and 143 total yards.
Lastly, Tennessee is 32nd in the league in pass-blocking grades and 29th in rush-blocking grades, per PFF.
Barring an insurmountable Vikings lead where the Titans can backdoor their way over this team total, I struggle to see how the Titans move the ball.
Assuming Levis starts, take the under on Tennessee’s point total.
Titans vs. Vikings: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Titans vs. Vikings public betting data and insights.
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