- The Senators are a 1.5-goal home favorite against the Maple Leafs.
- The Maple Leafs have lost 13 of their last 14 playoff series closeout games.
- My Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction is the Maple Leafs moneyline.
With a chance to level the series at home, the Senators host the Maple Leafs on Thursday.
Ottawa captured a convincing 4-0 win in Game 5 and now trails in the series 3-2. That comes after dropping each of the first three games.
Across the entire season series, Ottawa owns a 5-3 edge over the Leafs with three wins during the regular season.
Bet on Senators vs. Maple Leafs and other NHL matchups with up-to-date NHL odds.
Senators vs Maple Leafs Odds, NHL
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: -118
- Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline: -102
- Game Spread: Senators -1.5 (+220), Leafs +1.5 (-275)
- Over/Under: 5.5 Goals (+100/-120)
Maple Leafs vs Senators: Prediction
Based on one historically profitable NHL betting system, the Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction for Thursday’s game is the Maple Leafs Moneyline (-102).
Despite their weak record in potential closeout games – 13 losses in the last 14 – Toronto fits the profile of a team that ends its losing streak on Thursday.
Essentially, the theory is to back experienced playoff underdogs off a loss against teams off a win.
Since 2006, road teams in conference games off a loss against teams off a win are 212-186 SU, assuming they reached the playoffs the previous season.
Those team have simultaneously excelled recently, going 40-25 over the last three seasons.
But where those team excel further is when they’re facing a favorite that failed to reach the playoffs the previous season.
Sample the entire timeframe with that factor added, and bettors will find those teams are 56-32 SU.
Just over the previous three seasons, those teams against opponents that failed to reach the playoffs are 6-2 SU.
One final element worth considering: these teams excel off bigger defeats against opponents off big wins.
Shrink the initial sample down to teams off a three- or four-goal loss against opponents off a three- or four-goal win: 54-49 SU, including 14-5 over the last 19 games.
As a result, I like backing the Leafs to close out the series on Thursday.
Betting Senators vs. Maple Leafs: NHL Public Betting
| Team | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | 70% | 80% | 49% | 45% |
| Senators | 30% | 20% | 51% | 55% |
Bet Online at BetMGM
Are you ready to place a bet online? BetMGM is the premier destination for NHL betting.
At the online sportsbook, you can bet during the offseason with futures like Stanley Cup odds, during the season with New Jersey Devils odds and Columbus Blue Jackets odds, or during games with live sports betting. Whether you’re new to hockey, a longtime NHL fan betting for the first time, or a casual fan that bets every night, there’s a variety of updated odds for everyone.
If you don’t have an account, sign up for the sportsbook welcome promo, one of many sportsbook offers at BetMGM.
