- The Braves are -250 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Watch the game on FOX
The Baltimore Orioles (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Orioles vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 22-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 16-17 ATS.
Orioles vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | +200 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 8 -115 | -250 |
Orioles vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.50 Units / 95% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+7.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+7.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.85 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Braves vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Braves vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Braves vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -500 |
Braves vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -105 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 29 games (+11.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 61% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 33 games (+13.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+6.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.50 Units / 18% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 19-13 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 13.7% ROI).
- 22-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.7 Units / 23.75% ROI
- 19-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.05 Units / 17.16% ROI
- 12-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -24.33% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 16-17 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 1.04% ROI).
- 22-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 12.99% ROI
- 20-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +7 Units / 19.47% ROI
- 12-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.25 Units / -27.97% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 7.91 (66.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 3.92 — first Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has a strike rate of just 59% (505/856) vs left-handed batters since last season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (328/580) since last season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 62% — sixth Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has not struck out any hitters in 16 PA’s in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 41% (57 SO in 139 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .154 (19-for-123) against Spencer Strider this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 45% (65/146) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 44% (31/71) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Orioles are 24-28 (.462) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Orioles are 6-3 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Orioles are 85-26 (.766) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Orioles are 14-1 (.933) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Braves are 7-5 (.583) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Braves are just 0-4 (.000) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .358 (481 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Orioles hitters are slugging .465 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .823 (481 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .356 (765 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .544 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves hitters are slugging .302 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .501 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Braves hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .097 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Orioles have won 61% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have have still managed to win 55% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D10
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
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