- Padres / Diamondbacks TV Channel: PDTV | DBTV
The San Diego Padres (+155) visit Salt River Fields at Talking Stick to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-190) on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Scottsdale, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 6-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 3-7 ATS.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Padres | +155 |
| Diamondbacks | -190 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Brett Sullivan has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jordan Lawlar has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+0.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jordan Lawlar has hit the Singles Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+0.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 155 games (+17.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 77 away games (+7.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+9.29 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 98 of their last 176 games (+9.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Padres are 5-5 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -6.02% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.56 Units / 12.26% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -21.44% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.63 Units / 14.34% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Diamondbacks are 3-7 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -41.7% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.81 Units / -22.5% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -4.14% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.58 Units / -5.21% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pedro Avila has limited playing time.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson had an ERA of 8.25 (55.2 IP) at home in the 2023 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.14 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .356 (84-for-236) against Ryne Nelson at home in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson allowed a slugging percentage of .636 (150 Total Bases / 236 ABs) at home in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .411 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson struck out just 14% (42/304) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Padres were just 1-65 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are 48-7 (.873) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Padres are just 14-28 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 116-21 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 55-36 (.604) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Diamondbacks are just 132-13 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks were 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Padres were just 2-13 (-73.5% ROI) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres hitters had a swing rate of just 44% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters had an OBP of .343 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters slugged just .512 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Diamondbacks hitters struck out just 1,247 times in 6,124 PA’s (20%) in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters slugged just .394 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Diamondbacks hitters missed on just 23% of swings in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,898 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% against the Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 434 times in the 2023 season — 3rd most in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,706 times in the 2023 season — 4th most in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH (4,085 batted balls) in the 2023 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,042 times in the 2023 season — 4th most in MLB.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Corbin Martin (Arizona Diamondbacks): Lat, Out
- Chris Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, Out
- Kevin Ginkel (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, Out
- Scott McGough (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, Out
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Manny Machado (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, Out
- Gary Sanchez (San Diego Padres): Hand, Out
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