Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 03, 2022, 9:24 AM
  • The Dodgers (90-41) are -225 favorites vs the Padres (74-59)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (7-7), 4.90 ERA
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías (14-7), 2.32 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Diego Padres (+180) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 72-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 78-50 ATS.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -110O 8.5 -105+180
Dodgers -1.5 -110U 8.5 -115-225

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 61.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 27 away games (+20.05 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 49 away games (+18.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 47 away games (+15.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+14.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+14.05 Units / 51% ROI)

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 67 games (+15.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+13.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 52 of his last 79 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 51 games at home (+13.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 57 of their last 108 games (+10.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 away games (+3.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 away games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 127 games (+9.13 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+2.15 Units / 8% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 59-71 against the Run Line (-15.8 Units / -9.81% ROI).

  • 72-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -3.83% ROI
  • 61-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -6.71% ROI
  • 65-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -1.83% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 78-50 against the Run Line (+24.9 Units / 16.18% ROI).

  • 88-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.55 Units / 2.94% ROI
  • 52-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -21 Units / -14.9% ROI
  • 66-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 5.89% ROI

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of .491 (110 Total Bases / 224 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 — second Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed an OPS of 1.436 (98 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.005 — second Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 18% (28/157) against Sean Manaea when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed an OBP of .328 (430 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 11th Percentile.

Julio Urías: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed batters are hitting just .201 (81-for-403) against Julio Urias this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 94th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .077 (3-for-39) against Julio Urias — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Julio Urias has walked 8 of 307 left-handed batters (3%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Julio Urias has a first-pitch strike rate of 68% (372/550) this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 94th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 39-31 (.557) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Padres are 60-20 (.750) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 80-17 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Dodgers are 23-84 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Dodgers are 37-8 (.822) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Dodgers are 113-16 (.876) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters are slugging .245 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

The Padres are batting .229 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Dodgers hitters are slugging .449 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .336 (8,037 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .781 (1,534 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .338 (3,624 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Padres have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres pitchers have walked 69 of 1,188 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Padres pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (1323.2 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .209 against Dodgers pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (606.2 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Brusdar Graterol (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.