- The Mariners are -130 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo, 2.59 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales, 6.35 ERA
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the Seattle Mariners (-130) on Monday, March 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Peoria.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Padres vs Mariners Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Padres are 10-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 10-9 ATS.
Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | O 9.5 -105 | +110 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | U 9.5 -115 | -130 |
Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.25 Units / 162% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.00 Units / 150% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Taylor Trammell has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+18.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 87 games (+4.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 11-12 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -5.98% ROI).
- 10-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -11.39% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -11.66% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 4.74% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 10-9 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.39% ROI).
- 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 7.29% ROI
- 6-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -36.9% ROI
- 13-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 29.12% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
7 of Seth Lugo’s 28 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) were backdoor last season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed an OBP of just .228 (114 PA’s) vs left-handed batters last season — 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — 91st Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 59% (41/69) against Seth Lugo in two-strike counts last season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales had a strikeout rate of just 13% (103/783) last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 16% (83/532) against Marco Gonzales last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (580/1,369) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has located his fastball inside 51% of the time (1,138/2,243) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 14-11 (.560) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 46-37 (.554) on the road last season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters drew 190 walks in 1,781 PA’s (11%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Mariners have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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