Padres vs Mariners Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 27, 2023, 11:59 AM
  • The Mariners are -130 favorites vs the Padres
  • Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo, 2.59 ERA
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales, 6.35 ERA

The San Diego Padres (+110) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the Seattle Mariners (-130) on Monday, March 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Peoria.

The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Padres vs Mariners Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Padres are 10-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 10-9 ATS.

Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -185O 9.5 -105+110
Mariners -1.5 +150U 9.5 -115-130

Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 91% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Dylan Moore has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.25 Units / 162% ROI)
  • Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.00 Units / 150% ROI)
  • Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Taylor Trammell has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+18.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 87 games (+4.85 Units / 5% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 11-12 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -5.98% ROI).

  • 10-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -11.39% ROI
  • 10-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -11.66% ROI
  • 12-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 4.74% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 10-9 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.39% ROI).

  • 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 7.29% ROI
  • 6-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -36.9% ROI
  • 13-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 29.12% ROI

Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.

7 of Seth Lugo’s 28 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) were backdoor last season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.

Seth Lugo allowed an OBP of just .228 (114 PA’s) vs left-handed batters last season — 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — 91st Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 59% (41/69) against Seth Lugo in two-strike counts last season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.

Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Marco Gonzales had a strikeout rate of just 13% (103/783) last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 16% (83/532) against Marco Gonzales last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (580/1,369) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has located his fastball inside 51% of the time (1,138/2,243) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 97th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 14-11 (.560) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 46-37 (.554) on the road last season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters had an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Mariners hitters drew 190 walks in 1,781 PA’s (11%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Mariners have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Mariners vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.