- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Watch the game on MASN2
The San Diego Padres (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Padres vs Nationals Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 22-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 30-18 ATS.
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +105 | O 10 -115 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | U 10 -105 | +130 |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+9.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.35 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+13.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.85 Units / 31% ROI)
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +135 |
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games (+18.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games (+15.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 games (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 37 games (+3.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.40 Units / 66% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 23-25 against the Run Line (-7.4 Units / -11.76% ROI).
- 22-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.85 Units / -19.76% ROI
- 15-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.15 Units / -37.18% ROI
- 31-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.85 Units / 28.75% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 30-18 against the Run Line (+10.35 Units / 17.31% ROI).
- 20-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 6.69% ROI
- 21-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -8.01% ROI
- 23-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.66% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (2/16) against Ryan Weathers in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has induced opposing hitters to ground into 5 double plays in 20 opportunities (25%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 43% of Ryan Weathers’ pitches (167/392) this season — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 48% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (10/27) against Ryan Weathers on changeups this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 22% — sixth Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his changeup for a strike just 49% (301/618) of the time since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 6% (3 SO in 53 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .528 (84 Total Bases / 159 ABs) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: .362 — second Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown low pitches 63% of the time (279/444) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 4-80 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Padres are 17-2 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Padres are just 5-24 (.172) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 36-71 (.336) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 24-47 (.338) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Nationals are just 18-2 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Nationals are just 24-117 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .184 with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Padres are batting just .209 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have drawn 146 walks in 1,197 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.12 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have 71 extra-base hits out of 280 total hits (just 25%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have just 95 strikeouts in 560 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Padres have won just 17% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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