Jon Rahm has dominated the event the last few years.
He led by six shots after the third round last year but had to withdraw following testing positive for COVID-19. The year before that he won by three shots even with a final round 75.
Muirfield Village is a course where the same players usually play well year after year, so course history is a trend weighed higher for this week. And it places more of an emphasis on finding the fairway and hitting good iron shots over putting.
Rahm currently is No. 1 on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and is second in Strokes gained Tee-to-Green.
Because of this, and being ranked No. 2 in the world, it’s no surprise Rahm has the best golf odds to win this week at +1000.
So as a heavy favorite, how are bettors treating him?
At BetMGM as of Tuesday, Rahm is pulling in the most tickets at 6.3% but the fourth-most handle at 7.8%.
Regarding handle, Shane Lowry (+2500) and Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) are pulling in the most money, with Lowry at 12% while Matsuyama is right behind him at 10.3%.
Lowry enters in great form – three top-3 finishes in his last 11 worldwide tournaments as well as a T-6 finish at the tournament last year – while Matsuyama won the event in 2014 and has three finishes of T-13 or better since. He’s been up-and-down this year, though, which may scare away some bettors.
Current Handle & Tickets
- Shane Lowry – 12%
- Hideki Matsuyama – 10.3%
- Collin Morikawa – 8.8%
- Jon Rahm – 7.8%
- Patrick Cantlay – 7.3%
- Jon Rahm – 6.3%
- Collin Morikawa – 5.6%
- Cameron Smith – 5.1%
- Jordan Spieth – 5.1%
- Patrick Cantlay – 4.6%
According to the odds, Rory McIlroy is the second favorite at +1100 but is only pulling in 3.8% of the tickets and 3.1% of the handle.
Morikawa (+2000) is BetMGM’s biggest liability, and he’s had some success at Muirfield Village. He was the runner-up last year and won the Workday Charity Open, which was held at the course in 2020.
Last year’s winner, Patrick Cantlay, saw his odds go from +1800 to +1600, but he’s coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship.