Genesis Scottish Open 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The PGA Tour will be in Europe for the next two weeks, beginning with the Genesis Scottish Open July 13-16, from The Renaissance Club in Scotland.

It is the first week of the partnership between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, as the top players from each tour will be competing against one another. Other players on both tours will be competing at the Barbasol Championship back in Kentucky.

The Genesis Scottish Open has a purse of $9 million, is not a designated event, but still has a loaded field, including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, and defending champion Xander Schauffele.

The Renaissance Club has hosted the event for the last four years, but last year was the first where a number of PGA Tour players joined the DP World Tour players.

It is a par-70 that can play up to 7,237 yards and is a links-style course designed by Tom Doak. In terms of scoring, it depends on the weather, especially the wind. Last year, Schauffele won with a score of 7-under, but in 2021, Min Woo Lee won with a score of 18-under.

Like most European courses, the fairways are hard and fast, and it’s a different style than players are used to in the United States.

When it comes to selecting players to bet on, it will be a harder-than-usual week for a few reasons.

No. 1, there are a number of DP World Tour players who many in the United States are unfamiliar with. And No. 2, there is no data for these players. The Fantasy National database only has data for PGA Tour events since the DP World Tour does not produce it.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*All odds as of July 11.

Genesis Scottish Open Predictions 

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Genesis Scottish Open with a 12.5% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Rory McIlroy is next at 11.11%, followed by Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele at 6.67%.

Genesis Scottish Open Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +700 Odds to Win

Scheffler is on a crazy run of late. He hasn’t finished worse than T-12 since last October and has six straight top-5 finishes dating back to the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s been off the last two weeks, but that shouldn’t be much of an issue.

It is worth noting the 27-year-old missed the cut at this event last year.

Patrick Cantlay +1400 Odds to Win

Cantlay is having a very solid season and seems due for a win at some point. The No. 4 player in the world has finished inside the top 20 in nine of his last 11 starts, including a T-4 in his last event, the Travelers Championship.

He’s also able to tweak his game to adapt to the course conditions, which will come into play this week. Cantlay finished T-4 here a year ago.

Genesis Scottish Open Sleepers

Robert MacIntyre +8000 Odds to Win

MacIntyre is a solid player on the DP World Tour and is coming off a solid week last week at the Made in Denmark, where he finished T-4. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship, which has been his only other PGA Tour event.

The lefty is too good of a player to be +8000.

Kurt Kitayama +8000 Odds to Win

Kitayama finished second at this event a year ago, and he’s a more confident player coming off his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this past March. The 30-year-old is in the Ryder Cup conversation and a solid finish in any of the bigger events coming up will only make his case stronger.

He has missed his last three cuts, but going to a place where he knows he can play well could be just what he needs to turn things around.

Genesis Scottish Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Tyrrell Hatton Outright Win +1800
• Matt Fitzpatrick Outright Win +2200
• Tommy Fleetwood Outright Win +2200
• Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish +130
• Matt Fitzpatrick Top-10 Finish +200

For this week, my betting card was a little shorter than a typical tournament given all the unknowns, and it was hard to fully utilize my Fantasy National model since almost half the players in the field do not have data.

Hatton, Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood all have plenty of experience playing in Scotland, which is why I’m favoring them over a lot of the high-performing PGA Tour stars.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Rickie Fowler
4. Wyndham Clark
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Justin Rose
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Tyrrell Hatton
9. Tommy Fleetwood
10. Jordan Spieth