PGA Championship 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

One of the best weeks of the year for golf betting and golf in general is here.

The PGA Championship from Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, North Carolina is May 15-18.

Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler each have the best odds to win at +500. McIlroy completed his career Grand Slam at the Masters last month, while Scheffler won for the first time this season in his last start at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

Since it is a major, members from LIV golf are in the field, including Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann and Phil Mickelson.

Normally, PGA Championship courses are unique, only hosting PGA Tour events every 10 or so years, but that is not the case this year. Quail Hollow has hosted the Wells Fargo Championship for many years and hosted the Presidents Cup in 2022.

Quail Hollow is one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour, so the longer hitters have an advantage, especially with the heavy rain early in the week, which will create soft conditions. 

I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-green, Driving Distance, Par-4 Scoring: 450+ yards, Proximity: 175+ yards and Bogey Avoidance. 

*Odds as of May 12

PGA Championship Prediction

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are predicted to win the PGA Championship with a 16.67% implied probability, according to betting markets. Bryson DeChambeau is next at 10.53%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

PGA Championship Best Bets

Rory McIlroy Outright Winner (+500)

Not overthinking this one. McIlroy is playing with as little pressure as he’s had at a major in over 10 years, and it is at Quail Hollow, a place McIlroy has won four times before. He also has the course record at Quail Hollow (61).

Quail Hollow demands excellence and length off the tee, and that is the strength of McIlroy’s game. It’s no surprise he’s had such great success here in the past.

I acknowledge the number isn’t great, so perhaps it’s worth parlaying it with something else, potentially something in the NBA or NHL playoffs, like the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference.

Xander Schauffele Outright Winner (+2000)

The market doesn’t seem to believe that Schauffele is back to regular form following missing some time with a rib injury earlier this year. 

While he had some trouble in his first few events back, Schauffele enters with four straight top-18 or better finishes, including a T-8 at the Masters.

Schauffele has also had some past success at Quail Hollow, finishing solo second the last two times he’s teed it up here.

Lastly, the PGA Championship has had multiple repeat winners, including Brooks Koepka going back-to-back in 2018 and 2019.

Bryson DeChambeau Top-5 Finish (+188)

Similar to McIlroy, Quail Hollow suits his game very well, given his length off the tee.

This is another one not to overthink things, as DeChambeau has finished T-5 or better in three of the last four majors. In addition, he’s had some past success at this course, finishing fourth in 2018 and T-9 in 2021.

Xander Schauffele Top-10 Finish (+188)

Much of the above for Schauffele applies here as well.

He’s also finished inside the top 10 at the last five majors, and seven of the last 10.

Sungjae Im Top-20 Finish (+240)

It has been a strange year for Im, who got off to a great start on the West Coast, struggled for a few months, but now seems to be back on track with T-11 or better finishes in two of his last four starts, including a T-5 at the Masters.

Im doesn’t have the distance as some of the top players, but can make up for it with his play around the greens. 

In his last two appearances at Quail Hollow, he’s finished inside the top 10 (T-4 in 2024, T-8 in 2023).