PGA Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — In the last 13 editions of the PGA Championship, the winner has been 35/1 or shorter in the outright market on 11 occasions.

The only players to win from beyond that price? Phil Mickelson, who already owned five majors titles before claiming a sixth from 250/1 in 2021, and Jimmy Walker, who’d won twice in the previous year-and-a-half before triumphing in 2016 from 125/1 odds.

Other than that, the list has been a collection of not only who’s-who, but who-we-thought, with plenty of chalky selections eventually lifting the Wanamaker Trophy at week’s end.

At Quail Hollow Club, which will feature a 7,626-yard par-71 setup, there are already signs that the winner once again will come from that top tier, as some of those players have excelled here in the past and most of them have displayed recent elite-level form.

For my money, the value this week comes in finishing position bets, props and matchups, but that won’t stop us from making a few outright selections, as well. With that in mind, let’s get right to ‘em, picking up exactly where we left off with the most recent major championship.

PGA Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Rory McIlroy (+500)

This feels like a week where you’ve gotta pick your ride-or-die from the top tier and begrudgingly fade all the others, at least in the outright market. From the list of those at 25/1 and shorter, the process of elimination isn’t easy. To wit: Ludvig Aberg was my first player crossed out from this tier — and I absolutely love everything about Aberg’s game. Problem is, his seventh-place finish at the Masters remains his lone top-50 result in his last five starts, suggesting Ludvig AI might need to hit a reset button.

The next player eliminated was Jon Rahm, simply because he hasn’t played his best golf at the majors since leaving for LIV Golf, but neglecting that big ol’ chip on his broad shoulders feels a bit disrespectful. The tee-to-green numbers remain terrific and the “law of averages” states he’s overdue, but the mojo around Collin Morikawa feels off, from lashing out at reporters to parting ways with his longtime caddie. Xander Schauffele is close — like, really close — to getting back to where he was at this point last year, when he won his first major championship at Valhalla, but I’m going to wait another month and potentially select him at Oakmont.

Fresh off winning by 82,761 strokes at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, it feels like Scottie Scheffler is “back” even if he never actually left, but I’m not fully convinced in him as such a short favorite. Bryson DeChambeau was perhaps the toughest elimination, but I’ve got another investment in him later in this preview which should suffice. Same goes for Justin Thomas, about whom I’ll similarly write below. All of which leaves McIlroy as my outright selection from the top tier.

If you want to convince me of any of the other names listed already, I’ll carefully listen, but I decided on Rory for the simple fact that he’s been completely unburdened in his career-long quest for success. As some have termed it, he’s already won golf, having claimed the career grand slam last month, so everything from here is gravy, which should free him up to compete with a clear mind.

Throw in the not-insubstantial fact that he’s won four times at Quail Hollow — or as Jordan Spieth called it, “Rory McIlroy Country Club” — and there are more reasons to like him this week than anyone else, just as there are fewer reasons to dislike him.

Aggressive: Keegan Bradley (+10000)

The construction of your card for this tourney might very well differ from mine, but if I’m offering up such a short favorite as my conservative outright, then I can’t in good conscience allow for even a mid-tier selection for my aggressive play. Sure, there are players I like in the 30/1 to 40/1 range, but if we’re looking for some ROI and not simply a pat on the back in the aftermath, then I’m going to dip down into the triple-digit range, which is surprisingly flush with some decent names who have a bit of win equity in an event of this magnitude. Bradley certainly qualifies.

Fun fact: When he won this tournament as a rookie in 2011, he was a mere 125/1 beforehand, which means we’re getting 14 years of experience, during which he’s won some other big-time events, and only paying a small tax for that information. Quail Hollow is going to require a devilish combination of length and accuracy off the tee, and few hit the long ball straighter — or the straight ball longer — than the U.S. Ryder Cup captain.

Much as I wrote in this section last week, this isn’t a “pick to win” so much as it’s an opportunity to identify a player whose actual probability exceeds his implied probability. I similarly like Sam Burns (+9000) and Tony Finau (+12500) for the same reason. Do I think any of them are going to win? No. Do I think they each have the ability to win if they play their best golf? Yes — and that’s the question we should be asking when it comes to playing longshot outrights.

PGA Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Justin Thomas (+333)

It took three years of saying, “JT is getting there” before JT actually got there – and make no mistake, “there” in this tale is amongst the game’s best players, a place he’s longed to return after a drought that included three years without a win and a season when he even missed the FedEx Cup playoffs. Not only are things coming together for him, as he won the RBC Heritage and followed with a runner-up finish at last week’s Truist Championship, they very well might be culminating at the right time.

Thomas won his first of two PGA Championship titles at Quail Hollow back in 2017, has since posted four results here of 26th or better, went 4-1-0 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and should have plenty of good vibes in his return. Simply put, there are no longer any red flags affixed to this selection. I firmly believe that if he doesn’t win this week, it’s because he’ll get beaten by another top player, not because he’ll play his way out of the mix. Expect him to be in serious contention come Sunday afternoon. 

Aggressive: Sungjae Im (+1000)

It’s been a strange season for Sungjae, a two-time PGA Tour winner who appeared ready to take the next step in his career progression entering the year. After a pair of top-fives in his first three starts, he’s posted just one more in his next dozen, although that one just happened to be at the Masters, which suggests not for the first time that he tends to play his best golf when the conditions are tougher. It hasn’t just been a strange season results-wise, though; even the stats have been weird.

Im currently ranks 20th in SG: Off the tee, 11th around the greens and 26th in putting, which are world-class numbers – or would be world-class numbers if he wasn’t 179th in approach. The lack of strong iron play could be mitigated a bit this week. Sure, the approach game often helps foretell success, but all those other aspects of the game are going to be massively relevant this week, and there are signs the irons could come around, as he’s been right around field average with those clubs for the past two months. 

PGA Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+275) and Tommy Fleetwood (+275)

Professional golfers will often say of a golf course: You can only take what it’s giving you. The same can be said for bettors. Look, I’m guilty of forcing outrights on both Cantlay and Fleetwood this year – I did it for the former just last week – but at some point, we have to take the situation at face value. They’re showing us their cards and what their cards are telling us is that they’re much better floor plays than ceiling plays. In fact, since the beginning of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season, these two players have combined for 33 top-10s, 66 top-25s and exactly zero victories.

That includes five top-10s at majors (and 12 top-25s), where they each have a habit of showing up on a weekend leaderboard after the rest of us really haven’t heard their names for the first few days. It might sound chalky to list a couple of 33/1 outrights as top-10s, but we’re simply taking what they’re giving us. 

Aggressive: Patrick Reed (+450)

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Well, here’s your history lesson on Reed at Quail Hollow: He finished tied for second place the last time the PGA Championship was held here back in 2017 and he was top-eight in two of the last four years he played the annual PGA Tour stop here. Throw in the fact that Reed finished solo third at last month’s Masters and it’s become apparent that he’s one of the few LIV players whose game has carried over to the majors. Reed has always played like he has something to prove. Now that he actually does again, it could be another big week.

PGA Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Jason Day (+250)

I know what you’re probably thinking: Didn’t this dude just WD last week with recurring neck pain? He sure did – and yes, it’s been a problem over the years. (Not just the neck, but the laundry list of WDs.) The truth is, if another top player was fresh off a pre-tourney WD last week, I’d probably look at him with a more discerning eye, but a Day withdrawal shouldn’t even faze us anymore.

I’ll admit that a Day investment is probably more valuable in markets where we can find some leverage, such as DFS or the proverbial office pool, as most will be scared off by injury talk, but I love the way he’s played this year in a return to longtime instructor Colin Swatton and as long as he’s healthy enough to give it a go, I believe he’ll surprise some people with a bounce-back result. 

Aggressive: Daniel Berger (+230)

Another week, another Berger selection in my weekly preview. And why not? He continues to show a high floor on a regular basis, now with top-30 results in 10 of 12 starts this year and each of his last nine. That includes a T-3 at the RBC Heritage, followed by a T-11 at the Truist. He’s doing it all with top-30 ranks off the tee, on approach shots and around the greens, while his putting isn’t much further behind. And he’s been right around this placement on the leaderboard in the previous big ones, with a T-20 at The Players and a T-21 at the Masters. I’m going to wait another month to play Berger’s ceiling again – the U.S. Open and subsequent Travelers Championship have me intrigued – but I’ll keep playing his floor this week and beyond.

PGA Championship Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Denny McCarthy (market not yet available) and Taylor Pendrith (market not yet available)

One sign of a great course – in my humble opinion, at least – is that it doesn’t play into the hands of only one type of player. Many have argued that the 7,600-plus yardage of Quail Hollow will automatically negate the chances of the shorter hitters, but I’m not buying into that theory. Driving accuracy might not be rewarded as heavily as distance, but it’ll matter. As if to further prove my point, I’ve listed a pair of players who reside on the opposite ends of this spectrum, as McCarthy is more of a fairway-finder and Pendrith is more of a bomb-and-gouger. The truth is, McCarthy tends to play well on long, difficult courses, as evidenced by a season-best T-5 at Torrey Pines, a playoff loss two years ago at Muirfield Village and results of T-6 and T-8 right here at Quail Hollow in the past two years. Long known as one of the game’s best putters, he’s a classic example of a shorter hitter who can succeed on a longer track.

Pendrith, meanwhile, looks like he’s built for this type of place. He ranks sixth in SG: Off the tee and third in total driving this season, which are numbers that might be predictive of solid play here. If this host venue is what we think it is, it should allow for different types of players to perform well, which means we can pick both a McCarthy type and a Pendrith type without having to choose between them. 

Aggressive: Cameron Young (market not yet available)

Look, I didn’t expect to be here myself just a few days ago, but when searching big prices on guys who drive it well and have a bit of recent form, well, somehow Young checks all the boxes. He’s been such an afterthought that when one colleague asked me last week if he was even in the Truist Championship field, we both laughed it off as unimportant, because he’s lacked leaderboard relevance for a while now. It might’ve happened very quietly, but Young showed up last week and showed up on the board, posting a T-7 result, despite driving it below field average.

That hints to me that there’s room for improvement. I won’t pretend like this is my favorite play out there and certainly have some trepidation, but if we blindly seek talent toward the nether regions of this board, Young stands out as a guy with plenty of value as a low-end finishing position play. 

PGA Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)

Aggressive: Akshay Bhatia (+8000)

For my FRL plays – and to learn more about BetMGM’s FRL No Sweat Token – click here.